2020 NBA Playoffs: Clippers vs. Mavericks odds, picks, Game 3 predictions from model on 58-32 roll

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The seventh-seeded Dallas Mavericks will look to spring their second straight upset when they take on the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 3 of their best-of-seven Western Conference first-round playoff series on Friday. After dropping Game 1 by eight points, the Mavericks rebounded with a 127-114 win on Wednesday. The Clippers have been the better shooting team and have the statistical edge in numerous offensive categories. They include field-goal percentage (46.6 to 46.1), free-throw percentage (79.1 to 77.9) and 3-point percentage (37.1 to 36.7).

This 2020 NBA Playoffs matchup from AdventHealth Arena in Orlando, Fla., is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET. William Hill lists Los Angeles as a five-point favorite in the latest Mavericks vs. Clippers odds, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 231. Before making any Clippers vs. Mavericks picks, see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned well over $4,700 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 58-32 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,300 on those picks alone. Amazingly, it hasn’t missed a single top-rated pick (5-0) since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Clippers vs. Mavericks. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Mavericks vs. Clippers:

Clippers vs. Mavericks spread: Clippers -5
Clippers vs. Mavericks over-under: 231 points
Clippers vs. Mavericks money line: Clippers -200, Mavericks +175
LA: F Kawhi Leonard was eighth in the NBA in points (27.1) and tied for sixth in steals (1.8)
DAL: G Luka Doncic’s 42 points in Game 1 was the most by a player in NBA history making his playoff debut

Why the Clippers can cover

Despite being upset in Game 2, Los Angeles has a deep roster and was tied for the fifth-most bench points scored in franchise history, and ranked first in the NBA in bench scoring (50.3) for the second season in a row. The Clippers were also second in bench rebounds (20.5) and ranked second in bench field goal percentage (46.9). Los Angeles has outscored its bench counterparts in 56 of 72 games this season.

Paul George has been a key component to the Los Angeles offense and, since the restart, has scored 21 or more points in seven of eight games, including 27 in the series opener and 30 against the Los Angeles Lakers on July 31. Despite being limited to 14 points due to foul trouble in Game 2 against the Mavericks, he posted a double-double with 10 rebounds. In two regular-season games against Dallas this year, he averaged 25 points, 5.5 rebounds and four assists. In 21 career games vs. the Mavericks, George has averaged 21.7 points, seven rebounds and 3.4 assists.

Why the Mavericks can cover

Despite that, Los Angeles isn’t a lock to cover the Clippers vs. Mavericks spread. That’s because Dallas has a prolific offense, which finished the regular season averaging 117.0 points per game, third best in the NBA. The Mavericks have two players averaging more than 20 points per game with Doncic averaging 28.8 points and forward-center Kristaps Porzingis averaging 20.4. Dallas is the fourth-best rebounding team in the league as well, grabbing 46.9 boards per game. Only Milwaukee, Brooklyn and the Clippers have been better.

Offensively, Doncic has been a beast and is averaging 35 points and eight assists per game in the series. He became the first 21-year-old to score 40-plus points in a playoff game since LeBron James did it in 2006, and is only the fourth 21-year-old to do it. In three regular-season games against the Clippers this season, Doncic averaged 29 points, seven rebounds and seven assists.

How to make Clippers vs. Mavericks picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total. In fact, it says Los Angeles’ Montrezl Harrell will score five points fewer than his average, while Dallas’ Seth Curry will score nearly a point less than his average. It also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mavericks vs. Clippers? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Clippers vs. Mavericks spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,700 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.