The Utah Jazz and the Denver Nuggets square off in Game 4 of a best-of-seven series on Sunday evening. After the Nuggets escaped with an overtime victory in Game 1, the Jazz responded with back-to-back wins, leaving Game 4 as a potentially pivotal contest in the series. Will Barton (knee) is out for the Nuggets, with Gary Harris (hip) listed as doubtful. Ed Davis (knee) and Justin Wright-Foreman (not with team) are unavailable to play for the Jazz.
Tip-off for Game 4 is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET in Orlando. William Hill lists the Jazz as three-point favorites, up from the opening line, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 216 in the latest Nuggets vs. Jazz odds. Before you make any Jazz vs. Nuggets picks, see the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it’s already returned well over $4,700 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 58-32 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,300 on those picks alone. Amazingly, it hasn’t missed a single top-rated pick (5-0) since the NBA’s restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Nuggets vs. Jazz spread: Jazz -3
- Nuggets vs. Jazz over-under: 216 points
- Nuggets vs. Jazz money line: Jazz -160, Nuggets +140
- DEN: The Nuggets are 5-6 against the spread in the last 11 games
- UTAH: The Jazz are 6-5 against the spread in the last 11 games
Why the Nuggets can cover
The Nuggets have struggled on the whole in back-to-back games but, offensively, there is plenty to be excited about for Denver. In the regular season, Mike Malone’s team posted a top-five offensive rating in the NBA, and that effectiveness included an elite ranking in offensive rebounding. In addition, the Nuggets can attack defenses at all levels, with Nikola Jokic operating out of the post, Jamal Murray leading the way on the perimeter and Michael Porter Jr. serving as a young, athletic x-factor with the ability to stretch the floor as a shooter.
Defensively, Denver has struggled in this series. However, the Jazz do have issues in protecting the ball and offensive rebounding, both of which could be exploited by the Nuggets if they bring energy on the defensive end in a virtual must-win game. Plus, the Nuggets are 4-2 against the spread in their last six meetings against Utah.
Why the Jazz can cover
The Jazz finished the regular season as a top-10 offense in the NBA, headlined by the second-best effective field goal percentage in the league. Within this series against the Nuggets, Utah has been even better, leading the entire NBA Playoffs by scoring more than 1.29 points per possession. Some of that stems from a breakout from Donovan Mitchell, who has been fantastic at the point of attack for the entire series. In addition, the Nuggets are struggling mightily on the defensive end, giving the Jazz plenty of places to attack in Game 4.
Defensively, the Jazz have their hands full with Denver’s talented roster, but Utah made gains in Game 3, and Rudy Gobert captains a strongly above-average defense that is capable of making life difficult for the Nuggets.
How to make Nuggets vs. Jazz picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total, calling for 225 total points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Jazz vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread hits well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Nuggets vs. Jazz spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,700 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.