It is the debate dividing pundits and social media – did Arsenal ‘bottle it’, or are relentless Manchester City just too strong?
At the beginning of April, Arsenal restored an eight-point lead at the top of the Premier League over rivals Manchester City with a 4-1 home win over Leeds United.
Fast forward to May and the Gunners’ hopes of securing a first title since the unbeaten ‘Invincibles’ side of 2003-04 look over, after a second-half capitulation at home to Brighton on Sunday.
City are one victory away from a third successive top-flight crown thanks to winning 11 league games in a row and dropping just two points from 42.
Data experts Nielsen’s Gracenote suggest it was not a case of Arsenal ‘bottling’ the title, with their current total of 81 points exactly matching their projections.
Instead, it is Manchester City raising the bar even higher, with their calculations showing City have “outperformed expectations by seven points since mid-January”.
BBC Sport looks at the other Premier League title races in which substantial leads have been overturned.
‘Agueroooooo!’ – Man City & Man Utd, 2011-12 (eight-point lead)
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Dawn | Lost | For | Against | Points |
| 1. | Man United | 32 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 78 | 27 | 79 |
| 2. | Man City | 32 | 22 | 5 | 5 | 75 | 26 | 71 |
The 2011-12 title fight was a two-horse race between Manchester City and Manchester United, with the rivals swapping places at the top of the table throughout the campaign. Following a 1-0 loss to Arsenal at Emirates Stadium on 8 April, City found themselves eight points behind United with six matches remaining.
Would manager Sir Alex Ferguson be bringing a 13th Premier League trophy back to Old Trafford? Or could Roberto Mancini secure City’s first top-flight success in 44 years?
In one of the most dramatic endings to a Premier League campaign, City won all of their last six matches – including a 1-0 win against United – to win the league on goal difference. While Mancini’s men collected three points after three points, Ferguson watched his side lose 1-0 to Wigan and drop two points in a 4-4 draw with Everton after leading 4-2 with seven minutes to go.
Two minutes into injury time in their final match of the season, losing 2-1 at home to QPR and with United beating Sunderland, City’s Edin Dzeko scored a 92nd-minute equaliser before Sergio Aguero’s famous winner in the fourth minute of added time turned Manchester sky blue.
Title ambitions slip away – Liverpool & Man City, 2013-14 (nine-point lead)
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | For | Against | Points |
| 1. | Liverpool | 35 | 25 | 5 | 5 | 96 | 44 | 80 |
| 2. | Chelsea | 34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 66 | 24 | 75 |
| 3. | Man City | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 88 | 34 | 71 |
Liverpool and winning league titles used to go hand-in-hand, but the hunt for a top-flight trophy since 1990 had been a fruitless task for the Merseyside club.
Brendan Rodgers was now in the managerial chair and as the season drew closer to its conclusion, the Reds hit a scintillating run of form, picking up 11 consecutive victories – including a home win over Manchester City – to lead the Premier League title race in April 2014 by five points over second-placed Chelsea and nine points over Manuel Pellegrini’s City in third.
With Liverpool having played more games than their two closest rivals, Rodgers and his side knew they could not afford any mistakes in their final three games.
The title race was blown wide open, however, when Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea arrived at Anfield on 27 April. Demba Ba gave the Blues the lead at the end of the first half after Reds captain Steven Gerrard’s slip, before Willian capped a 2-0 win with a breakaway goal in stoppage time.
One week later Liverpool’s trophy ambitions were severely dented again after a three-goal lead was squandered in the final 11 minutes in a 3-3 draw at Crystal Palace.
In the midst of the Reds’ title stumble, City won their last five matches and picked up their second Premier League prize in three years by two points.
French revolution – Arsenal & Man Utd, 1997-98 (11-point lead)
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | For | Against | Points |
| 1. | Man Utd | 28 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 57 | 19 | 59 |
| 2. | Arsenal | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 45 | 26 | 48 |
| 3. | Blackburn | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 49 | 33 | 48 |
Arsene Wenger was in his first full season as Arsenal manager when he delivered Double delight to the Gunners by securing their first league title in seven years and the FA Cup.
The team they pipped to glory was Manchester United, who took control of the table in October 1997 with a 7-0 thumping of Barnsley, stayed on target for a third consecutive Premier League honour until April and had an 11-point buffer to Arsenal and Blackburn by the start of March – though the sides below them had games in hand.
Wenger’s revolution at Highbury picked up pace in the latter stages of the campaign and 10 wins in a row saw them lift the title with two fixtures remaining as Ferguson’s side faltered with defeats by Sheffield United and the Gunners, plus draws against West Ham, Liverpool and Newcastle.
‘I will love it if we beat them’ – Newcastle & Man Utd, 1995-96 (12-point lead)
| Position | Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | For | Against | Points |
| 1. | Newcastle | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 45 | 19 | 54 |
| 2. | Liverpool | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 46 | 21 | 42 |
| 3. | Man United | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 41 | 27 | 42 |
Before Kevin Keegan let his emotions spill over in his famous “I will love it” post-match interview, Newcastle United had started the campaign in title-winning form and held a 12-point advantage over Manchester United by January 1996.
The remaining 15 fixtures did not go to plan for Magpies manager Keegan, however, as Newcastle lost five of their next eight matches and were defeated by Ferguson’s side at St James’ Park in March to cut the gap at the top to one point.
More away woes were to follow with losses to Arsenal, Blackburn, and the 4-3 thriller at Anfield against Liverpool, allowing Manchester United to draw level on 64 points before overtaking the Magpies with a 1-0 victory against the Gunners at Old Trafford.
The mind games started when Ferguson questioned whether some teams were as committed to getting a result against Newcastle as they were his own team.
Cue Keegan’s rant to the Sky Sports cameras after a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Leeds United, when he said: “He [Ferguson] has got to go to Middlesbrough and get something,” before ending with the classic line “I’ll tell you, honestly, I will love it if we beat them – love it.”
Unfortunately for Keegan and Newcastle, getting something out of the final match at Boro was simple for Manchester United who won 3-0. With 1-1 draws against Nottingham Forest and Tottenham in Newcastle’s final games, their wait to be crowned English champions for the first time since 1927 continued.
Bottled it? – the fan views
Yves: “Arsenal had to field pretty much the same team for the whole season. Man City can field three different teams if they have to and still win the league. Seriously, what did people expect was going to happen?”
Tim: “Arsenal blew it. Its all very well saying second is great but they had an eight-point lead in a season where City started very slowly, Liverpool and Chelsea were awful and Spurs imploded. This was their chance.”
Dobbo: “Arsenal haven’t bottled anything. The best team winning the league is always the right outcome and Man City are the best team unfortunately.”
James: “Where exactly are these people denying that Arsenal have thrown away the league? They have, but the fact is that coming second, having been fifth last year and expected to be outside the top four again, is still a fantastic season. Clearly need some more depth and strength but that’s not to give huge credit to the players this season.”
Def: “I wonder if all the Arsenal fans recall the grief they gave Spurs about being ‘bottle jobs’ after Leicester deservedly won the league. How many points ahead were Spurs in February again?”
