Oftentimes in sports, decisions should be dictated by circumstance.
Unfortunately, nobody has informed the Bills or their quarterback.
On Monday, Buffalo somehow lost to the host Jets in overtime, 22–16, in a game which will largely be remembered for New York losing quarterback Aaron Rodgers to injury on the first offensive series of the night before rallying for an improbable win.
For the Bills, it’s a Week 1 loss on a weekend where ground was to be gained, including on AFC rivals such as the Bengals and Chiefs.
Still, there’s a larger point at hand, and one that will be a constant theme for those paying attention until January.
The Bills must play smarter football, or they will never approach their full potential.
Against the Jets, Buffalo was facing a feeble offense led by backup quarterback Zach Wilson after Rodgers’s exit. Last year, Wilson started nine games and threw six touchdowns against seven interceptions while completing 54.5% of his attempts.
Despite this, Allen fumbled and threw three mind-numbing interceptions to safety Jordan Whitehead, repeatedly forcing deep balls into double coverage downfield. The results were both easily avoidable and predictable.
While the first interception essentially served as a punt, the next two were far more galling.
Buffalo was leading, 13–6, with 4:08 remaining in the third quarter and faced second-and-13 on the Jets’ 41-yard line. Instead of throwing the ball away, Allen once more made a poor choice and paid for it.
Then, with 9:43 remaining in regulation, Allen threw another pick on an out-breaking route, throwing too far inside, enabling Whitehead to steal it near midfield. After New York tied the game, Allen fumbled the snap, picked the ball up, ran, and fumbled again.
In a game where the Jets could manage almost zero offense, a field goal on either of those drives would’ve all but ended the game. Instead, New York was given three more chances.
It ultimately cost Buffalo what should have been a fairly easy divisional win.
Of course, Allen’s brilliance can’t be denied, but neither can his inability to avoid obvious errors. It’s something which can be brushed into the dustbin against overwhelmed opponents in October, but not something which will be survived in the postseason.
In November of last year, the Bills blew a 14–3 lead to these same Jets (also led by Wilson) with Allen throwing two costly interceptions.
One week later, Buffalo held a 27–10 lead against the Vikings. That was also relinquished, punctuated by a fumbled snap at Buffalo’s goal line while Allen was looking to kneel out the clock. Then, after rallying to force overtime, Allen threw a hideous interception to Minnesota corner Patrick Peterson when a field goal would have tied the score.
Come the wild-card round, where the Bills barely escaped at home against the Dolphins and third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson, primarily because Allen threw two interceptions and lost a fumble.
Those losses—pick either—are the reason Buffalo was forced to play in the opening round instead of having home-field advantage throughout the playoffs for the first time since 1993.
But this issue isn’t just about Allen. It extends to the coaching staff.
In last season’s divisional round, the Bills were completely outclassed by the Bengals and defensive guru Lou Anarumo, holding Buffalo to 10 points in a blowout loss at home.
The year prior, the Bills suffered through their famous 13 Seconds loss at Kansas City, kicking through the end zone and then allowing 45 yards on two plays to permit a game-tying field goal before the Chiefs won in overtime.
One would expect both the coaching staff and Allen to learn over the years.
Yet on Monday night, despite either leading or being tied the entire game until the final two minutes, the Bills ran 22 times—including six carries from Allen—while throwing 41 attempts. It’s a staggering ratio considering what the situation was throughout the contest.
As for Allen, the sixth-year quarterback ought to take into account his team’s standing in a game.
The Bills only needed to play smart while making sure the hapless Jets’ offense was forced to drive the length of the field. Instead, New York was given short fields repeatedly in the fourth quarter, highlighted by a fumble tied at 13, which gave the Jets the ball only 27 yards from the end zone.
Barring injuries, the Bills are going to make the playoffs. They’ll likely fight for a high seed in the loaded AFC and be a trendy pick to hoist the franchise’s first Lombardi Trophy. Rightfully so, considering their talent level.
But as things stand, Buffalo is long on ability but short on football IQ.
And in the playoffs, that circumstance spells doom.
