The longest rally had the biggest effect on the final outcome.
Novak Djokovic defeated Nick Kyrgios 4-6, 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(3) in the Wimbledon final on Sunday, turning around his fortunes early in the second set by finding his consistency and rhythm in a 23-shot rally when serving at 1-1, 30/30. It was the longest point of the match, and the exact tonic Djokovic needed to reinvigorate his game after dropping the opening set. He won that long point and a 19-shot rally on the next point at 40/30.
Those two points were the dividing line in the match. They signaled exactly when the momentum shifted and where Djokovic took control of the match with his championship mojo. The following breakdown identifies the change in fortunes in extended rallies before this moment in time and after it.
Rallies Of 9+ Shots
First 8 Rallies (Up to 1-1, 30/30, Second set): Kyrgios won 7/Djokovic won 1
Rest Of The Match: Kyrgios won 3/Djokovic won 16
Djokovic’s confidence was suddenly brimming after hammering home his advantage in longer rallies, and he broke Kyrgios’ serve to love in the next game. It was the first time Djokovic had broken Kyrgios in just more than five sets of tennis, dating back to their two matches in 2017, which the Australian won. Breaking serve broke the focus and concentration of Kyrgios, whose body language became increasingly irritated for the remainder of the match.
Djokovic only won 36 per cent (4/11) of all rallies that went five shots or longer in the opening set, but that escalated to 63 per cent (36/57) over the remaining three sets as Djokovic figured out it was far better to grind with Kyrgios than go toe-to-toe with him playing first-strike tennis.
Djokovic craved baseline exchanges and his winning percentage from the back of the court proves his plan worked to perfection.
Baseline Points Won
Djokovic: 63% (61/97)
Kyrgios: 33% (33/100)
Djokovic won almost double (61-33) the number of points when he finished the point at the back of the court compared to Kyrgios. His primary target was to go after Kyrgios’ forehand out wide in the Deuce court, breaking it down by making the Australian repeatedly have to hit his forehand on the run. Djokovic only committed 14 forehand errors for the match, while Kyrgios notched 41.
It is important to note that the final, like most matches on Tour, was not won by the player that hit the most winners. The following breakdown speaks to the reality of taking titles on the world’s biggest stage.
Total Winners
Djokovic: 46
Kyrgios: 63
Total Errors
Djokovic: 50
Kyrgios: 86
As Djokovic’s groundstroke game blossomed, that success spilled over to other areas of his game, particularly with his first serve.
Djokovic First-Serve Points Won
First Two Sets: 74% (29/39)
Last Two Sets: 92% (33/36)
The Serbian only lost three points behind his first serve in 11 service games in the last two sets. Once he got his teeth into the match by winning the 23 and 19-shot rallies early in the second set, it felt like a light switch had been flipped. Until then, Djokovic had been mostly reacting to the heat Kyrgios was throwing at him with big serves and aggressive net play. After that, Djokovic was the more confident and positive player, running Kyrgios side to side from the back of the court.
The two long rallies settled Djokovic’s game and gave him a pathway forward for his fourth straight Wimbledon title and 21st Grand Slam trophy overall.
Source Tennis – ATP World Tour
