Whether Celtic folk see it as the return of the prodigal son or the reappointment of the shameless one, Brendan Rodgers seems to be on his way back to Parkhead, bar a late hitch.
His dream job, remember. “A way of life… the ultimate… a truly great football club… one of the iconic clubs of the world… the greatest in the world.”
Rodgers will bring nous and charisma. It’ll not be dull, not for one millisecond. It’s unclear whether he will also bring the trowel he used to lay on the shtick in his first spell and, if he does, what impact those words will have on the support this time around.
“I was born into Celtic” might not work so well a second time after the bitterness and rancour he left behind when upping and leaving for Leicester City in the spring of 2019.
Much of the reaction to his exit among Celtic fans back then was weary disappointment, but among the extreme minorities there was also horrible anger.
In the days and weeks after he departed it was impossible to envisage a comeback, not even to watch a game never mind to manage the club again, which would have seemed like an outlandish concept.
But here we are on the cusp of a Rodgers restoration, for however long it lasts. The language of the fans has been tempered. Old grievances have been parked, for now. Frankly, even Lazarus would be gobsmacked with the way this is playing out.
Celtic’s logic in wanting to bring him back is obvious. He’s the closest thing they can get to a sure-fire winner, so expedience rules. The fans might have to suck it up for a while, but with Rodgers, as opposed to anybody else, there is a higher chance of success. And success tends to soothe all ills.
In going back to the future, the hierarchy of the club believe they’re giving themselves the best shot at continuing the dominance put in place by Ange Postecoglou.
Domestic landscape ‘more challenging’
Some of the stuff Celtic played under Rodgers was exceptional. He won all the trophies, dominated the landscape, lorded it over proceedings like a king on his throne.
But, if he’s coming back, context needs to be applied to what he did before and what he’s going to have to improve on now.
The fact is Rodgers inherited a champion team and existed in deeply favourable times. Rangers were a shambles, lurching from Mark Warburton to Pedro Caixinha to Graeme Murty and then Steven Gerrard. In Rodgers’ two full seasons, Aberdeen finished second.
What we remember primarily from Rodgers at Celtic is the invincible season of 2016-17, a campaign of genuine class.
We don’t necessarily recall with the same kind of clarity the following season, in which Celtic won the title with 82 points. Outside of the Covid-curtailed season of 2019-20, that is the second-lowest winning total in almost a quarter of a century. Celtic dropped points in 14 league games that season.
In his final campaign, Rodgers lost league games to Hearts, Kilmarnock, Hibs and Rangers and dropped further points against St Mirren, Livingston and Motherwell.
They had a points-per-game return of 2.3, which was putting him on course for a title-winning total of 87 had he stayed (Neil Lennon took over and Celtic did, indeed, finish on 87 points).
That’s the joint-sixth lowest title-winning tally since the turn of the millennium. In the last two seasons, Rangers’ total in finishing second was higher than in two of Rodgers’ two-and-three-quarter seasons when they finished first.
It could be argued that Celtic only idled while miles out in front and that it doesn’t matter how many points were dropped so long as the title is won. But everything we know about Rodgers and his ambition tells us that’s not the case with him.
He won all the prizes but outside of the brilliant invincible season there’s nuance there.
Postecoglou took over a mess, rebuilt an entire team and won his titles with 93 and 99 points (he had a better points-per-game ratio than Rodgers). And he did it with a much stronger closest rival.
If Rodgers re-joins the hothouse of Scottish football, he’ll find it somewhat different to what he knew before. Domestically, more challenging.
He’s a terrific manager and you’d expect him to add considerably to the club’s trophy haul, but it won’t be so easy this time. Celtic fans knock great fun out of mocking their city rivals but Rangers are way stronger now than they were.
Work to do in Europe
What’s in it for Rodgers? Coming back to Glasgow to win trophies he’s already won multiple times has the look of an aging rocker on a revival tour.
The league is the non-negotiable but for him, it’s not just about domestic football. It never was.
He sees himself as someone who can make a mark on Europe, given a decent budget. That’s part of the reason why he felt he could do no more at Celtic the last time. He wouldn’t contemplate coming back unless he felt his odds of doing something in the Champions League or Europa League were reasonable.
How Celtic strike a balance between fiscal prudence while releasing enough transfer money to satisfy Rodgers’ ambition is hard to know, but this is where they’re at.
The fact they are guaranteed group stage football in the Champions League would not have been enough of a draw unless there was enough backing to make something happen in Europe. He’s been a Champions League whipping boy before and it wasn’t fun.
Rodgers’ record in group stage and subsequent knockout European games is poor. Three wins from eight with Liverpool in 2012-13; two from eight in 2014-15; zero from two in 2015-16.
He won five from 22 with Celtic and 10 from 22 with Leicester, albeit he made the semi-final of the Conference League in 2021-22, a competition he said he hadn’t heard of until he was about to compete in it.
An overall record of 20 wins from 62 group and knockout games is a significant blot on the record of a manager who has achieved many excellent things in his career. The memory of some of the hidings he suffered at Celtic against the European elite – and not so elite – will not have faded.
One compelling question, among many, is whether he can do anything about it if his second coming becomes reality. The ‘dream job’ stuff, the rhetoric about ‘walking across broken glass to get to Celtic Park’ has had its time.
He might find a more demanding and less forgiving public now. For a manager who has done a lot, he has it all to prove.
