The Heat are arguably the best Game 1 team in the NBA. Since acquiring Jimmy Butler in 2019, they have gone 8-2 in Game 1s. While only one of those wins was a true road victory, four of them came against higher-seeded opponents. The Celtics, meanwhile, lost Game 1 of their series against Philadelphia despite the absence of Joel Embiid and lost two Game 1s during their run to the Finals last year. Boston tends to feel an opponent out early in a series. Miami hits the ground running. The Pick: Heat +8
Boston’s defense struggled for most of the first two rounds, but once it inserted Robert Williams III into the starting lineup for Game 6 against the 76ers? They held Philadelphia below 90 points in back-to-back games. The last four games of last year’s matchup averaged below 192 points, and this time around, these teams have so much experience against one another that the defenses should know how to approach the other team right away. Expect a low-scoring series. The Pick: Under 210.5
Miami has started Kevin Love at power forward for the bulk of this postseason. Boston complicates that plan. Jimmy Butler will probably guard Jayson Tatum either way, but would Miami really trust Max Strus to guard Jaylen Brown? I’d expect more minutes with Caleb Martin at power forward as a Brown matchup, with Strus hiding on Al Horford, who will have to spend much of his time in this matchup parked behind the arc if Boston plans to properly space the floor with Williams in the game. If Miami does indeed play a bit smaller, that should give Robert Williams plenty of space to clean up on the glass. The Pick: Williams Over 7.5 Rebounds