Chelsea face Borussia Dortmund on Wednesday in the first leg of a Champions League last-16 tie which could shape the remainder of an eventful season of big spending and “transition” at Stamford Bridge.
Under new manager Graham Potter, Chelsea are in a poor run of form with just two wins in 13 games. They are out of both domestic cup competitions and 10 points off the top four in the Premier League.
So as the Blues travel to Germany, is this make or break for Chelsea’s new regime following the £4.25bn takeover by American businessman Todd Boehly last summer?
Is Potter about to get sacked?
The short answer is no. Potter’s future will not be determined by success in the Champions League this season or the team’s ability to qualify for the competition again next season either by winning it, or finishing in the top four in the league.
Despite Chelsea’s £583m spend in the past two transfer windows it has been made clear that the long-term vision of those in charge of the club is aligned with the manager.
Potter has won 31.2% of games in the league, the third-worst record at the club in the Premier League era – albeit only 16 games in. Chelsea are currently in ninth place – behind his old club Brighton in seventh. His predecessor Thomas Tuchel won the Champions League for Chelsea in 2021.
Former Blues striker Chris Sutton has said the job is “too big” for him and Potter himself said results “have not been good enough”.
But the feeling at the club is that Potter has had to endure some unprecedented issues during his time in charge.
The signing of eight players in January, including the British transfer record of Enzo Fernandez for £107m, was described by Potter as “regeneration of the squad that needed to happen”.
Chelsea also have a crippling injury list, featuring star names including Raheem Sterling, Kalidou Koulibaly, N’Golo Kante, Mateo Kovacic, Christian Pulisic, Wesley Fofana, Edouard Mendy, Denis Zakaria and Armando Broja.
Chelsea’s incomings
| Marc Cucurella – Brighton, £60m | Benoit Badiashile – Monaco, £35m |
| Raheem Sterling – Man City, £50m | David Datro Fofana – Molde, £8m |
| Kalidou Koulibaly – Napoli, £33m | Andrey Santos – Vasco da Gama, £10m |
| Carney Chukwuemeka – Aston Villa, £20m | Joao Felix – Atletico Madrid, £9.7m loan fee |
| Cesare Casadei – Inter Milan, £12m | Mykhailo Mudryk – Shakhtar Donetsk, £89m |
| Wesley Fofana – Leicester, £70m | Noni Madueke – PSV Eindhoven, £30.7m |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – Barcelona, £10.3m | Malo Gusto – Lyon, £30.7m |
| Gabriel Slonina – Chicago Fire £8m | Enzo Fernandez – Benfica, £107m |
| Denis Zakaria – Juventus, loan | |
| Total: £583m |
And some outgoings…
| Alvaro Morata – Atletico Madrid, £31m |
| Tammy Abraham – Roma, £34m |
| Kurt Zouma – West Ham, £29.8m |
| Fikayo Tomori – AC Milan, £24m |
| Timo Werner – RB Leipzig, £25m |
| Emerson – West Ham, £13m |
| Mario Pasalic – Atalanta, £12.8m |
| Jorginho – Arsenal, £12m |
The Chelsea rebuild & transfer strategy
The new additions at Chelsea have been overseen by the club’s new co-sporting director Paul Winstanley, who joined in November.
A lot has been made of the decision of the club to offer such long-term deals to their new players, with Mykhailo Mudryk 22, Noni Madueke 20, Enzo Fernandez 22, and Benoit Badiashile 21, all signing contracts that run for more than seven years.
This is a US-style model which the club believes is an investment and protecting their assets, while giving security for the player. The average age of their 17 signings is around 20, with an average wage of £70,000 – a deliberate strategy to move away from what they believe is a ‘Chelsea salary’ at 40% higher than market value.
While the board will continue to look for emerging young talent, most pundits have pointed out the lack of a goalscorer in the current squad and Chelsea remain interested in the best players in world.
The club was also burnt by losing experienced defenders Antonio Rudiger and Andreas Christensen on free transfers in the summer and securing new signings to lengthy deals is one of the club’s reactions to that situation.
For any coach it would be challenging to integrate eight players into a new system, new club and new country but the Chelsea hierarchy have looked at the time the Arsenal board gave to their manager Mikel Arteta after his tough start and admire the way his young team are now performing at the top of the Premier League.
Will the spending continue?
The new owners remain happy with their investment, believing it to compare favourably to the sums being quoted around the valuation of Manchester United (£5-£6bn).
However, the amount of money spent in the past two transfer windows isn’t likely to be replicated. The new owners felt the squad needed to be refreshed and the focus has been on buying young, elite players with a good culture, who can compete immediately, but also progress at the club over the next few years.
While the British record £107m signing of Fernandez was questioned for the fee and his limited top-flight experience, Chelsea suggest it was a strategic move, with Mateo Kovacic the last central midfielder signed in July 2019 for £40m from Real Madrid.
The loss of players on free transfers is something which the club wants to avoid too. The situation with academy graduate and England international Mason Mount, who has 18 months left on his contract, is something they will try to avoid in the future.
BBC Sport understands the Chelsea board is comfortable with the current transition period and are measuring the club’s success in decades. And while Potter knows this, he will also understand that managing Chelsea is a high-stakes game, with new tests coming thick and fast, starting on Wednesday night in front of 81,000 fans in Dortmund.
