By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst
Now that Week 0 is out of the way and Week 1 of college football is finally here, it’s time to make some wagers. Bettors, on your marks!
But back to Week 0 for a moment. I told you there would be some worthwhile action during last weekend’s games, and I was right. For example, did you see that Northwestern–Nebraska game? Kudos to the Wildcats for covering and winning in Ireland. If you thought Week 0’s slate was a fun bunch to wager on, you’re in for a treat. We have some heavyweight battles right off the bat, so buckle up.
Let’s jump into my favorite bets for Week 1. I don’t think this will be shocking to anyone, but I have a pick for the game between my Oregon Ducks and the defending champion Georgia Bulldogs.
Keep reading to find out what I think about the huge Ducks versus Dawgs game and a couple of other marquee matchups. And, as usual, the odds are courtesy of FOX Bet.
No. 12 Oregon vs No. 3 Georgia (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)
I’m not here to convince you that Georgia is any less better than y’all believe, but I am here to point out that Oregon has the talent to keep this game close.
The Georgia Bulldogs are the defending champions, and despite losing half of their once-in-a-generation defense to the NFL Draft, they still have multiple first-round picks who will start on Saturday in Atlanta. No. 88 Jalen Carter is better than all three of the Georgia defensive linemen drafted in the first round just last April. Kelee Ringo, the cornerback who intercepted Alabama’s Bryce Young to seal the Bulldogs championship, is near the top of draft boards at his position. Plus, Nolan Smith can be a game wrecker.
These are just a few of the multiple blue chip players the Dawgs have on the roster. And this isn’t news to many, but nearly 80% of their roster comprises of four- and five-star high school recruits.
With that being said, Oregon has enough players to make this a game early on. The Ducks have defensive players at all three levels who will garner first-round NFL Draft grades. On the defensive line is Brandon Dorlus, at linebacker is preseason All-American Noah Sewell and on the outside is Colorado transfer, Christian Gonzalez. Linebacker Justin Flowe has not played a single game in two years and is on draft watch lists because of his talent alone.
The Georgia offense is built around its run game and tight ends. However, the Dawgs have to replace both running backs, two starting guards and wide receiver George Pickens. I believe the Ducks can use their defense to blunt Georgia’s rushing attack, which should force quarterback Stetson Bennett into mistakes.
Another factor to consider is Oregon’s new head coach Dan Lanning is Georgia’s former defensive coordinator. His knowledge of scrambling reads for Bennett and filling gaps in the run game will help the Ducks in this matchup, at least early on.
I cannot take Oregon to cover the full game because of their quarterback, Bo Nix. Oregon will run first, play action pass and attempt to avoid mistakes in the passing game. But Nix isn’t trustworthy, especially against an opponent of this caliber. Oregon returns its offensive line, and the roster has young players who can impact the game immediately. The Ducks also have outstanding skill talent that can run with the Georgia defense. However, let me say this again: they have Nix, who is mistake-prone. The QB will also be paired with an unproven offensive coordinator in Kenny Dillingham, amplifying Nix’s issues against a team like UGA.
The following two factors are why Oregon can keep it close in the first half. First, the Ducks have a stout and physical defense that can confuse Georgia’s offense. Oregon also has an offense scripted for success in the first half. The second half is where Georgia’s size and experience will pose an issue for the Ducks. I’ll grab Oregon first half.
Central Michigan @ No. 12 Oklahoma State (7 p.m. ET Thursday, FS1)
Give me the Chippewas to cover this spread in Week 1.
Oklahoma State is a solid team and will end up in the thick of the Big 12 title race, but the Cowboys have a ton of production to replace from last season. They lost their two best offensive weapons and seven defensive starters, including their four leading tacklers.
Central Michigan returns their solid quarterback and MAC Offensive Player of the Year in running back Lew Nichols. They also return a pass rush ranked 25th in sack rate and a defense ranked first in college football in tackles for a loss.
It’s also worth noting that Oklahoma State has struggled to start the season in these games against lesser foes. The Cowboys had a seven-point win against Missouri State last season, a nine-point win against Tulsa in 2020 and a loss to this Central Michigan team in 2016.
PICK: Central Michigan (+22 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 22 points (or win outright)
UTEP @ No. 9 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, FOX)
The safest play in this game is taking the Miners plus the large number and hoping they can do enough to cover. Also, Oklahoma has failed to cover these big spreads over the years.
I’m higher on Oklahoma than most because they have a talented roster, even with a new coaching staff. The Sooners have a new staff that features a first-time head coach, a new quarterback, a new play caller and new players all over the roster after the transfer portal defections. Oklahoma could start slower in this game than expected because teams take time to come together. However, once they get going in the season, watch out.
I’ll grab the points and take advantage of OU’s slow start.
PICK: UTEP (+31 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 31 points (or win outright)
Illinois State @ No. 18 Wisconsin (7 p.m. ET Saturday, FS1)
I’m going with the Badgers here as they will control the line of scrimmage all game long. Look for them to tack on late touchdowns to cover the 33-point spread.
Wisconsin has the most unheralded running back in the country with Braelon Allen. As a 17-year-old true freshman, he rushed for 1,286 yards on 186 carries, good for a whopping 6.8 yards per attempt.
Wisconsin’s defense finished last season ranked second in efficiency, which means Illinois State won’t be able to move the ball at all this game.
The Badgers are more talented and much bigger in the trenches and will run away with this game.
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p class=”mg-t-b-20 ff-h fs-16 lh-1pt88 mg-t-b-20 article-content” data-v-767c49cf>PICK: Wisconsin (-33 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 33 points
Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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