BBC Sport football expert Mark Lawrenson is taking on BBC Radio 5 Live’s pundits, presenters and commentators to predict the outcome of every game at the 2020 European Championship.
Lawro is bottom of the scoreboard before the quarter-finals but still has seven more games to pick up some points – and he already has an idea about who will reach the final at Wembley on 11 July.
“England will have home advantage in their semi-final, which will be massive – if they get there,” he said. “The crowds are only going to get bigger from here too.”
“On the other side of the draw, whoever wins out of Belgium and Italy in the last eight has to be favourites to go the distance.
“That’s a tough one to call – partly because we don’t know how fit two of Belgium’s best players are going to be.”
Lawro’s predictions for the quarter-finals
| Friday, 2 July | ||
| Switzerland v Spain | x-x | 1-2 |
| Belgium v Italy | x-x | 1-2 |
| Saturday, 3 July | ||
| Czech Republic v Denmark | x-x | 1-1P |
| Ukraine v England | x-x | 0-2 |
P next to team name = team won on penalties
A correct result (picking whether a team wins or loses, whether it happens in normal time or after extra time or penalties) is worth 10 points. So, if you tip England to beat Ukraine 2-1 and the Three Lions end up winning on penalties, you get 10 points.
The exact score earns 40 points, as does correctly predicting that a team will win on penalties, regardless of the score, correct or not. So if you tip Czech Republic P2-2 Denmark and the game finishes 1-1 but the Czech Republic win on penalties, you get 40 points, the same as if you get if you had said Czech Republic P1-1 Denmark.
FRIDAY
Switzerland v Spain (St Petersburg, 17:00 BST)
Switzerland were just fabulous against France in the last 16.
I didn’t fancy them at all beforehand, or when they missed their penalty at 1-0 up – and especially not when they were 3-1 down with 10 minutes to go – but they kept on coming and eventually got their reward.
The Swiss will be full of confidence after that but it is going to be very hard for them to follow that performance up.
Spain were awful in their first two group games but they have found their spark now. They were involved in their own thriller against Croatia on Monday, but they survived it.
Luis Enrique’s side are not good at coping with crosses, so Switzerland striker Haris Seferovic is going to be a handful when the ball comes into the Spain box.
But, if Spain can deal with that, I think they will progress. Their midfield is very strong. We know they will see a lot of the ball, and they have started scoring too.
Lawro’s prediction: 1-2
Pundits’ predictions: Karen Carney 0-2, Chris Waddle 1-3, Dion Dublin 2-3, Clinton Morrison 2-3, Chris Sutton x-x, Rob Green 1-2, Christian Fuchs x-x, Jermaine Jenas 2-2P, Emma Saunders 1-2, Steve Crossman 1-3, John Murray 0-2, Ian Dennis 0-2, Alistair Bruce-Ball 2-1, Conor McNamara 0-2, Vicki Sparks x-x
Belgium v Italy (Munich, 20:00 BST)
This is the tie of the round and the bad news for Belgium is that Kevin de Bruyne and Eden Hazard aren’t going to be fully fit after they were injured in their win against Portugal.
I was impressed by the way Belgium dug in for that win, but this is going to be another huge test for their defence.
Of all the teams that are left in this tournament, the one I like the look of the most in every department is Italy.
If you look back at pretty much every major finals that I can remember, the eventual winners have one knockout game where they don’t play as well as they can and scrape through.
If Italy get through this tie, however they do it, they have got a great chance of winning the whole thing. I don’t think they have got many weaknesses, put it that way.
Lawro’s prediction: 1-2
Pundits’ predictions: Karen Carney 2-1, Chris Waddle 1-3, Dion Dublin P2-2, Clinton Morrison 2-1, Chris Sutton x-x, Rob Green 2-1, Christian Fuchs x-x, Jermaine Jenas 1-2, Emma Saunders 1-1P, Steve Crossman 2-2P, John Murray 1-0, Ian Dennis 1-2, Alistair Bruce-Ball 1-1P, Conor McNamara 1-0, Vicki Sparks x-x
SATURDAY
Czech Republic v Denmark (Baku, 17:00 BST)
After such a difficult start to this tournament in every possible way, Denmark are in a really good place now.
They were much better than Wales in their last-16 tie, and now a really resolute Czech Republic side stand in their way.
The Czechs have had a very good tournament – they are a very compact and solid team. It’s very obvious how they try to work the ball forward, but it is very difficult to try to stop them because they are very good at it.
Lawro’s prediction: 1-1 after extra time – Denmark to win on penalties
Pundits’ predictions: Karen Carney 2-2P Chris Waddle 1-2, Dion Dublin 3-1, Clinton Morrison 1-2, Chris Sutton x-x, Rob Green 1-2, Christian Fuchs x-x, Jermaine Jenas 1-1P, Emma Saunders 1-2, Steve Crossman 1-1P, John Murray 1-1P, Ian Dennis 1-2, Alistair Bruce-Ball 1-3, Conor McNamara 0-0P, Vicki Sparks x-x
Ukraine v England (Rome, 20:00 BST)
England have done well so far. They’ve been cautious, but it has worked.
Basically, no-one has managed to change the way that England play – their manager Gareth Southgate is not going to unleash his attacking players unless they go one or two goals down.
It will be interesting to see how that works out, if it happens. I can’t really see Ukraine causing England too many problems though.
Ukraine got a great result against Sweden in the last round but the thing about this tournament is that you are only as good as your worst player.
They have got some very good players, but they have got some ordinary players too.
England will be flying after their win against Germany, but they won’t change the way they are set-up.
They haven’t conceded a goal yet and Southgate knows his side will always get chances in games – a return to Wembley for the semi-final is beckoning them.
Lawro’s prediction: 0-2
Pundits’ predictions: Karen Carney 0-2, Chris Waddle 0-2, Dion Dublin 2-4, Clinton Morrison 0-2, Chris Sutton x-x, Rob Green 1-2, Christian Fuchs x-x, Jermaine Jenas 0-2, Emma Saunders 0-2, Steve Crossman 0-2, John Murray 0-2, Ian Dennis 0-3, Alistair Bruce-Ball 0-2, Conor McNamara 1-0, Vicki Sparks x-x
| Italy v Spain | England v Denmark |
Mark Lawrenson was speaking to BBC Sport’s Chris Bevan.
