It’s possible Oklahoma State was just “inches short” of the College Football Playoff last fall — but it’s also a rather grand assumption that had Dezmon Jackson managed to grow a few inches on a desperate fourth-down dive against Baylor in the Big 12 title game, the selection committee would have chosen the Cowboys over Cincinnati.
The only certainty is that a great debate would have ensued. What we do know is the late loss eliminated then-No. 5 Oklahoma State from the conversation — an equally important lesson that will continue to resonate in the era of a four-team field.
“If you lose from the first of November on, it’s got to be in a championship game in most cases, and it’s got to be to a team in the top four,” Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said. “Other than that, you’re really out, is what percentages tell you.”
While it’s not a written rule, there’s some merit to Gundy’s theory, especially if it’s the second loss of the season, as it was for the Cowboys. It underscores just how difficult it is for teams to finish undefeated or with one loss — especially if they make it to the conference title game, which many coaches have unofficially deemed a quarterfinal in this system. The Cowboys came painstakingly close last fall, but they’re in good company with several teams that flirted with a top-four finish — or at least won their conference — and have the potential to build on that this season.
“It drives all of us,” Gundy said of the Cowboys. “But we have to understand it’s a step-by-step process to get to that point. And hopefully we can meet the criteria, [and] with the team playing hard and not having letdowns and being healthy, we can be there.”
Here’s a look at a handful of hopefuls that came up short, along with two teams that were in the playoff but might have some trouble staying there. They’re ranked in order of the best chance to make a playoff push:
