LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers host Donovan Mitchell and the Utah Jazz on Friday, and tipoff from the Staples Center is set for 10:30 p.m. ET. L.A.’s acquisition of Anthony Davis is the most noteworthy change for these two Western Conference contenders heading into the 2019-20 season, but the Jazz also made several under-the-radar moves that will be key. They traded for veteran Mike Conley, while also bringing in role players Bojan Bogdanovic, Emmanuel Mudiay, Ed Davis, and Jeff Green. Unfortunately, Bogdanovic might miss this game with a left ankle sprain. For Los Angeles, Kyle Kuzma (foot) remains out, but Rajon Rondo (calf) might be able to return. L.A. is listed as a 3.5-point home favorite, while the over-under for total points is 219 in the latest Lakers vs. Jazz odds. Before you make any Jazz vs. Lakers picks or NBA predictions, you’ll want to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and anyone who followed it last season saw massive returns. The model finished 300-252 on all its top-rated picks. On top-rated against-the-spread and money line NBA picks alone, the model returned a whopping $4,280.
Now it has locked in on Jazz vs. Lakers. We can tell you it’s leaning over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model is well aware that while Utah made moves this offseason, the Jazz still are short on options to defend James and Davis. Utah started Royce O’Neale and Bogdanovic at the three and four in their opener. Those two have a combined four-inch and 60-pound disadvantage against James and AD. The Jazz have Rudy Gobert to meet them at the rim, but when it comes to individual defenders, they are drastically undermanned.
Meanwhile, the Lakers brought in two strong defensive options at the two guard position in Danny Green and Avery Bradley this offseason, and those two should make life harder on Mitchell, Utah’s leading scorer.
Just because L.A.’s strengths counter Utah’s weaknesses doesn’t mean it will cover the Lakers vs. Jazz spread on Friday.
The model is also well aware that while Utah’s wings might be over-matched physically, the sum is greater than the parts when it comes to the Jazz. This defense is anchored by Gobert, the back-to-back Defensive Player of the Year, but the unit has lacked strong individual defenders after him. Yet, the Jazz have ranked top-three in defensive efficiency in each of the past three years.
The Lakers, on the other hand, are prone to defensive breakdowns as the far less disciplined defensive unit. In their season-opener, the Lakers gave up 25 points on wide-open (no defender within six feet) shots to the Clippers. That’s nothing new for the Lakers, who gave up wide-open looks to opponents at the highest rate (26.6 percent) in the entire NBA last season.
Meanwhile, the Jazz allowed wide-open looks at the league’s second-lowest rate.
So who wins Jazz vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread hits in more than 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Jazz vs. Lakers spread you need to jump on Friday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
