It’s the time of year when we are splitting hairs to determine which one-loss teams make our expanded College Football Playoff mock bracket.
For the first time since we started this weekly post, our at-large selections are not all undefeated, as Oregon, Wake Forest and Alabama advance into the bracket despite defeats.
It was a painstaking call to add the trio into the field over teams like USC, Oklahoma State and Illinois, but the determining factor was the quality of losses. How can a loss have quality? The Ducks (vs. Georgia), Deacons (Clemson) and Crimson Tide (Tennessee) lost on the road against teams within our Top 5. That’s not the case for any other one-loss squads. Illinois (vs. Indiana) and Kansas State (Tulane) have the worst losses. While USC dropped a game Saturday to Utah, the Utes have two losses despite being scrappy at home. Penn State has the best loss of those left out (at Michigan), but the game was a rout.
Then, there’s Syracuse, the only undefeated team not advancing into our bracket (oh, the agony). Take a gander at the Orange’s strength of schedule, which ranks 118th nationally in the Sagarin ratings, and you’ll understand why. Their best win was Saturday’s victory over an N.C. State team that was missing QB Devin Leary.
The selection committee is not supposed to consider conference affiliation when seeding, but we’d be fools to think like that. Our bracket attempts to divide the wealth as best we could, with two teams apiece from the Pac-12, ACC and Big Ten and four from the SEC (remember, it just means … more).
Everyone else? The Volunteers vault into our Top 4 after their upset of Alabama and we are penciling them in as our SEC champion. Yes, we know the Vols play at Georgia on Nov. 5 and might have to go through Alabama again in the SEC title game, but keep in mind we are seeding off of current results.
As a reminder, we are using the exact expansion model CFP executives adopted in August. The 12-team model features automatic qualifiers to the six highest-ranked conference champions and six at-large selections to the next six highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions receive byes to the second round (independents are not eligible to receive a bye), and the four first-round games are played on the better seed’s campus. Six bowls host the quarterfinals and semifinals in a rotation, with teams assigned to their league’s historic bowl affiliation.
Orange Bowl
1. Clemson (ACC champion)
Sugar Bowl
2. Tennessee (SEC champion)
Fiesta Bowl3. Ohio State (Big Ten champion)
Rose Bowl
4. UCLA (Pac 12 champion)
Semifinals: Peach (1 vs. 4) and Cotton (2 vs. 3)
At Athens, Ga.
5. Georgia (SEC at large)
12. Tulane (AAC champion)
At Ann Arbor, Mich.
6. Michigan (Big Ten at large)
11. Wake Forest (ACC at large)
At Fort Worth, Texas
7. TCU (Big 12 champion)
10. Alabama (SEC at large)
At Oxford, Miss.
8. Ole Miss (SEC at large)
9. Oregon (Pac-12 at large)
Roll Wave: If you haven’t noticed, the selection committee (me) has rotated our No. 12 seed for much of the year. At least four different teams have represented the lower level as the highest-ranked champion out of the Group of 5, including James Madison, Coastal Carolina, Cincinnati and, now, Tulane. Yes, Tulane! The Green Wave are 6-1 and bowl eligible. Their only hiccup is a three-point loss against Southern Miss. And while it’s tough to see the Wave rolling to an unbeaten record in the American, you never know. They’ve got a scorching final three games, with trips to Tulsa and Cincinnati sandwiched between a home contest against SMU.
The Big Game, Take II: In an expanded playoff, the real selection committee should avoid first-round rematches and quarterfinal rematches between conference foes—at all costs. We’ve failed in that regard here, with No. 6 seed Michigan paired against No. 3 seed Ohio State. Could we flip No. 7 TCU and No. 6 Michigan? Sure. We could also swap No. 3 Ohio State and No. 2 Tennessee. Alas, we chose not to. The season might shake things out for us, as the Buckeyes host the Wolverines in a regular-season finale.
