Mavericks vs. Blazers odds, line: 2020 NBA picks, Jan. 23 predictions from computer model on 32-16 run

Damian Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers (19-26) will host Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks (27-16) on Thursday. The Mavs will be without starting center Dwight Powell, who is out for the season after suffering a ruptured Achilles’ tendon on Tuesday. For Portland, CJ McCollum (ankle) is listed as questionable, while Hassan Whiteside (groin) is probable.

Tip-off for the latest game on the Thursday NBA schedule is set for 10:30 p.m ET from the Moda Center. Sportsbooks list the Mavericks as 1.5-point home favorites, while the over-under for total points is 229.5 in the latest Mavericks vs. Blazers odds. Before making any Blazers vs. Mavericks picks or NBA predictions, you’ll want to see what SportsLine’s advanced computer model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It’s already returned almost $1,800 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 13 on a blistering 32-16 run on all top-rated NBA spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Blazers. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Blazers vs. Mavericks:

Mavericks vs. Blazers spread: Mavs -1.5
Mavericks vs. Blazers over-under: 229.5 points
Mavericks vs. Blazers money line: Dallas -129, Portland +108
DAL: The Mavs have covered 70.6 percent of road spreads this season, which is the second-highest rate in the NBA.
POR: The Blazers are just 16-27-2 ATS this season, which is the worst spread record in the NBA.

Why the Mavericks can cover

The model is well aware that Portland has seen no boost when playing at the Moda Center this season, covering just 31.6 percent of spreads when playing as the home team. The Mavs have more than doubled that number when playing as the road team, and their cover rate climbs all the way to 77.8 percent when playing as a road favorite.

The Mavs just beat Portland six days ago, and that win came without the services of Kristaps Porzingis. In these teams’ first meeting of the year, Porzingis put up 32 points and nine rebounds, so his return to the lineup will be an important factor. The Blazers also haven’t had an answer for Doncic, which shouldn’t come as a surprise given their 23rd-ranked defense. In two meetings with Portland, Doncic has averaged 32 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists.

Just because Dallas has the offensive power to overwhelm Portland’s defense, doesn’t mean it will cover the Mavericks vs. Blazers spread, however.

Why the Blazers can cover

The model is also well aware that Powell going down will have a big impact on the Mavs. Per cleaningtheglass.com, Powell has actually been Dallas’ third-most important player, providing the team with a boost on the offensive and defensive end. Overall, the Mavs have been 5.7 points per 100 possessions better with Powell on the court, so losing him for the season is notable.

This now becomes a matchup that Whiteside should dominate in the paint. He had averaged just 13.5 points in the previous meetings with Dallas this season, but he could dominate the paint without Powell on the court. Whiteside has recorded at least 17 points and 18 rebounds in three of his past four games, and he will present a real problem for the Mavs if he brings that same energy on Thursday.