An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings from the 2022 season uncovers a wide variety of first serve strategies when ahead or behind on the scoreboard after only one point is played in the game. Players clearly factor in where they prefer to serve and where the opponent may be anticipating. Having a clever mix out wide, at the body, and down the T is all about staying a step ahead in the guessing game of first serve location.

But nobody flipped the switch more than Daniil Medvedev.

The 27-year-old former No. 1 is the hottest player on tour after winning Rotterdam, Doha, and Dubai leading into Indian Wells this week. He is on a 14-match win streak and has won 19 of 21 matches to start the season. His different first serve strategy at 15/0 versus 0/15 provides an insight into how he goes about his business of holding serve.

Serving 15/0

According to the Infosys ATP Stats Serve Tracker, Medvedev led the current Top 10 going down the T with his first serve at 15/0. He hit 56 per cent there, which was just slightly higher than Holger Rune at 55 per cent. The players who went the least down the T at 15/0 were Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz, who only went there 36 per cent of the time.

Andrey Rublev was the most prolific going out wide at 15/0, with 54 per cent of first serves hitting that location. The other two players at or above 50 per cent out wide were Taylor Fritz (52%) and Novak Djokovic (50%).

What’s fascinating is that five of the Top 10 hit their first serve down the T more, while the other five targeted out wide more.

Current Top 10: First Serve Location at 15/0 (2022 Season)