MLB odds: How Fernando Tatis' suspension affects Padres' title odds

The San Diego Padres will be without superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. this season as the shortstop received an 80-game suspension by MLB on Friday after he tested positive for a performance-enhancing substance.

Tatis Jr. did not play this season as he’s been sidelined with a wrist injury, reportedly suffered in a motorcycle accident. He was expected to return soon from the injury but will sit out the final 48 regular-season games and any postseason contests for the Padres. The suspension will carry over to next season until he misses 80 games.

From a betting perspective, here’s everything you need to know about how the Tatis Jr. suspension affects the Padres’ odds (odds via FOX Bet)

PADRES ODDS (at FOX Bet) *

To win National League West Division: +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total)
To win National League pennant: +400 (bet $10 to win $50 total)
To win World Series (Bet Boost): +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total, was +1300)
Manny Machado to win National League MVP: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Juan Soto to win National League MVP: +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total)
Joe Musgrove to win National League Cy Young: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Sean Manaea to win National League Cy Young: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Yu Darvish to win National League Cy Young: +10000 (bet $10 to win $1,010 total)
Mike Clevinger to win National League Cy Young: +25000 (bet $10 to win $2,510 total)
Blake Snell to win National League Cy Young: +25000 (bet $10 to win $2,510 total)

The Padres were +2200 to win the World Series but dropped to as low as +800 after trading for Juan Soto on Aug. 2. After the news broke Friday, San Diego’s odds to win it all moved to +1400 at FOX bet.

Caesars Sportsbook said the Padres were +1000 to win the NL pennant the day before the Soto trade, then dropped to +475. Those odds lengthened to +800 after the suspension dropped.

The slugger hit 42 home runs to win the NL HR title in 2021. He also won his second Silver Slugger award after his .282/.364/.611 with 97 RBIs and 25 stolen bases last season.

“Never having the caliber of Fernando Tatis Jr. for this season is a major setback to the Padres,” FOX Sports MLB betting analyst Edward Egros said. “A basic preseason projection had him hitting 35 home runs this season, which would be tough for any ball club to replicate.”

But, Egros said Tatis Jr.’s suspension could have a silver lining for the team in brown.

The 68-46 Atlanta Braves, thanks to a four-game win streak, are 5 ½ games behind the New York Mets in the NL East Division but have a firm grip on the top wild-card spot.

The NL Central-leading St. Louis Cardinals are 62-50 and would face the third wild-card team in the first round. That would be a better match-up for the Padres.

“The Braves’ Statcast numbers prove they are even more dangerous to win the World Series than last year, even more so than the NL Central champion,” Egros said. “San Diego was in the second wild-card spot, which meant they’d face Atlanta, but now, I have them slipping to the final wild-card spot, with Philadelphia taking over second place.

“Dropping a spot but facing, I believe, the Cardinals is better than getting the red-hot Braves. So, I have Atlanta, Philadelphia and San Diego, in that order, capturing the NL wild-card spots. Avoiding Atlanta in that first-round series is not a bad thing.”

The suspension means Tatis Jr. will play in only 273 of a possible 546 regular-season games. He missed the final seven weeks of the 2019 season (back) and all of 2021 (left shoulder).

Tatis Jr. becomes the third player in the expansion era (since 1961) to finish in the top three in MVP voting and then miss the entire following season along with Moises Alou (missed 1999 season with a torn ACL) and Sandy Koufax (retired after 1966 season).

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