Ladies and gentlemen, the favorites are finally getting their revenge. We’ve covered the rash of early-season upsets in this space, both against the spread and straight up, but now, it seems the books have overcorrected. Favorites are 16-8 in the past three days, according to Odds Shark, and that leaves books in a precarious position.
Do they cave to this recent trend and create bigger lines for underdogs to pounce on? Or do they trust that this more settled portion of the schedule will lead to fewer upsets than the inherent randomness this season’s unique circumstances generated early on? This will vary on a day-to-day basis, but Thursday’s two nationally televised games both favor the underdogs. If you’re looking for a favorite, grab the defending champions.
Lines via William Hill Sportsbook
James Harden’s defensive woes have been overblown for several years now, but his absence has galvanized the Rockets on that end of the floor in ways that nobody could’ve predicted. In the six games they’ve played since trading him, they’re ranked second on defense. The catch is that success has come largely through shooting variance. Opponents are shooting only 30 percent on 3s against them in those six games, randomness that will eventually work against them.
That’s especially problematic against a Blazers team that takes the second-most 3s per game in basketball. If Houston’s luck regresses to the mean against Portland, things could get ugly quickly. The argument against that regression is Portland’s health, but it’s scored 115.9 points per 100 possessions over the past three games without CJ McCollum, so clearly, its depth is reliable.
Sometimes it’s just this simple: Steve Kerr is actually trying to win now. The Warriors coach acknowledged last week that if he needed a win, he wouldn’t start the five-man unit of Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Kelly Oubre Jr., Draymond Green and James Wiseman, but was doing so in order to help the team jell for later in the season. Well, he finally broke, inserting Kevon Looney into Wiseman’s place. The Looney version has been Golden State’s best lineup by point-differential by far this season. Unsurprisingly, it blasted Minnesota en route to two easy wins. Phoenix is trending in the opposite direction having lost seven of its past 10. Ride this Golden State wave until the books adjust.
Yes, you’re dealing with some lineup uncertainty here. Anthony Davis has only played in a single back-to-back so far this season, and he’s dealing with a minor ankle issue. There’s a good chance he sits. Who cares? The Lakers are outscoring opponents by 6.4 points per 100 possessions with LeBron James in the game and Davis out of it, according to Cleaning the Glass, and that number inflates against bad teams. The Lakers have nine double-digit wins this season. More than half of the league (16 teams) has fewer than nine wins in total. The Pistons are cannon fodder for an angry contender coming off a close loss.
