James Harden and the Houston Rockets host Kevin Durant and the Golden State Warriors on Monday, with tipoff from the Toyota Center set for 9:30 p.m. ET. The Rockets took Game 3 in overtime on the back of a 41-point effort by Harden. Eric Gordon came up huge in the victory too, knocking down seven 3-pointers and supplying 30 points. Steph Curry’s 2019 NBA Playoffs struggles continued in Game 3, as Chris Paul and company held him to an uncharacteristic 7-of-23 shooting. For the series, Curry is averaging just 18 points on 35 percent shooting. Houston is listed as a one-point home favorite, while the over-under for total points is 220.5 in the latest Warriors vs Rockets odds. Before you make any Warriors vs. Rockets picks, you’ll want to see the predictions for the 2019 NBA Playoffs from the advanced computer model at SportsLine. 

The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 30 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling record on its top-rated picks, returning more than $3,000 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA money line picks, entering Week 30 on a strong 85-60 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.

Now it has locked in on Warriors vs. Rockets. We can tell you it’s leaning over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in over 60 percent of simulations, indicating the line is way off. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

The model is well aware of how well Houston has played on its home court this season. The Rockets boast a 31-10 record at the Toyota Center, and their 61.4 percent cover rate in Houston is the NBA’s second-best mark. Meanwhile, Golden State has only covered 46.7 percent of its road games. 

Since getting Paul, Clint Capela, and Harden healthy, the Rockets have a sterling 15-1 record at the Toyota Center, with their one loss being a two-point defeat at the hand of the Warriors. Harden, in particular, has been untouchable when playing on his home court. He averaged an strong 37.4 points at home this season.

Just because Houston has been significantly better at home doesn’t mean it will cover the Warriors vs. Rockets spread in the NBA Playoffs 2019 on Monday, however.

The model is also well aware that Golden State could be up 3-0 in this series despite Curry struggling and the team shooting just 35 percent from 3-point land as a whole. Curry torched the Rockets during the regular season, averaging 28 points per game. He averaged 25 points, seven rebounds, and six assists against them in the NBA Playoffs last season while knocking down four threes per game.

For all of Curry’s struggles, Durant has been there to pick up the slack. He has continued his torrid playoff pace, averaging 36.7 points against Houston so far. His 46-point performance in Game 3 puts his scoring average over the past two weeks at 41 points. The Rockets clearly have no way of slowing him down, so look for Durant to continue to put up gaudy numbers in Monday’s Game 4 matchup.

So who wins Rockets vs. Warriors? And which side of the spread can you bank on in over 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Rockets vs. Warriors spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.