In case there was any doubt, Tuesday’s lines are proof that we’ve moved past the blowout portion of the postseason. Two games, two different rounds, two different conferences, two completely different stages of the postseason … and the lines are only off by half a point. Neither is more than two points in either direction. Vegas doesn’t know who’s going to win these games.
If you’re willing to increase your risk profile, your possible rewards are going to be greater. Money lines for all four teams are tempting given the closeness of these matchups, provided you have a strong read on what will happen in any of these games. Here are Tuesday’s best bets with the understanding that nothing from this point forward is guaranteed.
Lines via William Hill Sportsbook
Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors: Raptors -1.5
Toronto’s half-court offense remains problematic, but its defense actually held up well against Boston’s shot-makers in Game 1. The issue was what happened behind the 3-point line. The Raptors outscored the Celtics elsewhere, but Boston went 17 of 39 from behind the arc while Toronto went 10 of 40. Boston isn’t a better shooting team than Toronto. If that luck swings back, these teams are fairly even, and Toronto is playing with the sense of urgency its 1-0 deficit warrants.
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Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets: Nuggets -1
This is the NBA’s first-ever neutral court Game 7, so most of the rules no longer apply. Normally, the higher seed has an enormous edge in Game 7s by virtue of home-court advantage, but in Orlando, that won’t matter. The Nuggets get the slight edge here based on momentum, as winning the last two games should give them some sort of psychological advantage, and offensive depth. If Donovan Mitchell has a bad game, Utah is out of reliable forms of offense. He’s been so good this series that it hasn’t been an issue, but without another huge performance, the Jazz have no chance. The Nuggets could get big nights out of Jamal Murray, the best Nugget in this series, or Nikola Jokic or Michael Porter Jr. Points are always at a premium in Game 7s. The team with the most ways of finding them is usually at an advantage.
Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets: Under 218
Game 7s are usually low scoring, a concept relatively foreign to this series, but there’s also some long overdue shooting regression coming for these teams. The Nuggets are shooting 46.2 percent on wide-open 3s in this series. Utah is making 49.5 percent of their open long-range attempts. There’s no guarantee that this regression comes in Game 7, but given the typical defensive tone and pressure of those games, it seems like a somewhat safe bet.
