The current Week 5 NFL odds list three games with double-digit spreads: Patriots vs. Redskins (+15.5), Jets vs. Eagles (-14.5) and Chiefs vs. Colts (+11). In a league where any team can win on any given week, there’s always plenty of risk in riding large NFL spreads. However, with explosive offenses taking on struggling teams, there could be value in those NFL lines this week. On the other end of the spectrum, six games, including the marquee Cowboys vs. Packers (+3.5) showdown on Sunday, have spreads within four points, according to the latest NFL odds. Whether you’re looking to make the call on a potential mismatch or one of the games Vegas expects to come down to the wire, be sure to see the NFL predictions from the advanced computer model at SportsLine. They’ll help you lock in optimal Week 5 NFL picks of your own. 

This model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 5 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a blistering 21-11 run that dates back to last season. It’s also on a 83-54 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. And in Week 4, it nailed the Saints (+2.5) winning outright as underdogs against the Cowboys.

The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has examined the latest Week 5 NFL odds and lines, simulated every snap, and its football predictions are in. One of the top Week 5 NFL predictions the model recommends: the Giants (+5.5) stay within the spread against the Vikings.

Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones is 2-0 straight-up and against the spread as the Giants’ starter. Those wins came against the Buccaneers and Redskins, however, two of the league’s lower-ranked passing defenses. He’ll be tested against the Vikings, the league’s No. 5 overall scoring defense. The model says that Jones piles up around 250 yards through the air as the Giants cover in over 50 percent of simulations. There’s also plenty of value on the under (43.5) because that hits almost 70 percent of the time.

Another one of the Week 5 NFL picks from the model: the Steelers (+3.5) stay within the spread at home against the Ravens in an AFC North showdown at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. 

Pittsburgh is just 1-3, but outside of a 33-3 blowout at the hands of the Patriots in Week 1, the Steelers have been competitive in each game. They lost 28-26 to the Seahawks, 24-20 to the 49ers and got their first win of the season against the Bengals in Week 4, 27-3.

Quarterback Mason Rudolph appeared to gain confidence in that matchup, completing 24-of-28 passes for 229 yards and two touchdowns. The model projects that he’ll throw for over 250 yards against the Ravens, a team coming off consecutive losses. Pittsburgh covers the spread in well over 50 percent of simulations, while the over (44) also has value because that hits more than half the time. 

The model also has a strong pick for the battle between the Cowboys and Packers, and is calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard this week. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 5? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5, 44)
Chicago Bears at Oakland Raiders (+5.5, 40.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 47)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 41)
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (+5.5, 43.5)
New England Patriots at Washington Redskins (+15.5, 42.5)
New York Jets at Philadelphia Eagles (-14.5, 43.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 46.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans (-5, 49)
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (-3, 38.5)
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5, 44.5)
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 47)
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-11, 56.5)
Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5, 46.5)