It’s championship weekend, and we’re back with our best bets for Sunday’s games.
If you’ve been following along with us, you know we are having a little competition among ourselves here at Sports Illustrated. We’re entering the third week of our postseason picks and here is how it works:
Each expert uses an imaginary bankroll and risks one $100 unit on a game wager and one $100 unit on a player prop each week of the postseason. We’ll keep the bets rolling through the Super Bowl, and crown a winner at the end based on ROI.
Follow along and fade or follow your favorite analysts! We’ve listed each expert’s record and their bankroll with their picks below.
Now, let’s have some fun!
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Michael Fabiano: 1-3 ($190.91)
Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 (-110)
I took a total bath last week, taking the over on Jordan Love’s rushing yards and the Bills minus the points. Wide right! Oh well. I picked the Baltimore Ravens to get to the Super Bowl, but I think this game is going to be close. Very close. The Chiefs have only been underdogs eight times in 50 regular season games in the Patrick Mahomes era, and they’re 6-1-1 ATS in those eight games.
Best Player Prop: George Kittle over 61.5 receiving yards (-125)
I’m going to take Kittle over his receiving yards total against the Lions. With Deebo Samuel banged up, Kittle could see more opportunities against a Lions defense that’s weakness has been against the pass. If Deebo plays, I like this a bit less.
Jen Piacenti 3-1 ($630.00)
Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs +4.5 (-110)
How in the world are the reigning Super Bowl champions getting more than a field goal? I know the Ravens looked unstoppable last weekend, but they were facing a rookie coach and a rookie QB. Needless to say, that isn’t the case this weekend. Playoff Mahomes looked to be fully back last weekend, and his receivers even looked capable. The defense is playing tough, Isiah Pacheco is a beast in the run game and Taylor Swift will be wearing designer jackets next to a shirtless Jason Kelce in the box. The Chiefs even finally answered the question of how they would play on the road last weekend. I know the Ravens are the best team in the NFL, but I can’t see how Mahomes doesn’t find a way to at least keep this close.
Best Player Prop: Jahmyr Gibbs over 3.5 receptions (+110)
I’m sticking with the theme of playing plus money player props, as so far it has been a great strategy for my bankroll. Gibbs has caught four passes in each of the previous two postseason games, and he averaged exactly 3.5 catches per game during the regular season.
Meanwhile, the Niners allowed an average of 5.5 catches per game to running backs during the regular season.
One more thing: A lot has been made of the difference in how the Lions play in a dome vs. in open-air, so here is another interesting stat: Gibbs averaged 4.5 catches per game in the four games he played in outdoor stadiums this season.
Gibbs has gone over this mark in nine of 17 total games played this year, and he has outsnapped David Montgomery 71-52 across the last four games played.
Kyle Wood 2-2 ($370.91)
Best Bet: Detroit Lions +7.5 (-118)
I picked Detroit to cover earlier in the week when this line was at 6.5, so I’m definitely in on it at 7.5. The 49ers haven’t covered at home since October — that’s six straight losses against the spread, four of which came as a favorite of at least six points. Not only do the Lions have the best betting record in the NFL (including playoffs) this year at 13–6, they’ve only lost two games by more than seven points all season and this is their largest underdog position. And if the dynamic Deebo Samuel (shoulder) can’t go on Sunday, that’s even more reason to back Detroit.
Best Player Prop: Isaiah Likely Anytime Touchdown (+410)Likely has six touchdowns in his last six games. He also has the 10th-longest odds of any player to find the end zone Sunday. That doesn’t add up, so let’s jump on the value. Yes, Mark Andrews is expected to return for the AFC championship, but it will be his first game in over two months whereas Likely has been consistently delivering for weeks. In seven games since Andrews went down, Likely has hauled in 23 of 31 targets for over 15 yards per catch. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken isn’t going away from him now.
Craig Ellenport 2-2 ($375.66)
Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens -4.5 (-110)
It took me just about all season to finally come around and realize the Ravens are the best team in football. I mean, I thought the 49ers were the best team, but they got drilled at home by Baltimore just a month ago. The Ravens have held 12 of 18 opponents this season to 19 or fewer points, including seven to single digits. As much as we trust Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, the Chiefs’ offense has not been consistent enough to think they can topple Baltimore’s defense. And here’s the clincher: Excluding the regular-season finale against the Steelers, in which Baltimore was resting its starters, the Ravens have won their last five games – against the Texans, Dolphins, 49ers, Jaguars and Rams – by an average of 19.4 points. Definition of “on a roll.”
Best Player Prop: Kyle Juszczyk anytime touchdown (+550)
Look, don’t bet the house on this one, but let’s have some fun with a long shot. The 49ers are likely without one of their best weapons in receiver Deebo Samuel and they love their hard-nosed fullback. While Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle will be the key play-makers, don’t be surprised if the 49ers call Juszczyk’s number near the goal-line, most likely a passing play. Juszczyk, you may recall, caught a touchdown pass in Super Bowl LIV.
Bill Enright 1-3 ($183.33)
Best Bet: Chiefs +4.5 (-118)
I have a rule when it comes to great quarterbacks getting points, TAKE EM! Whenever Tom Brady was listed as an underdog, I jumped all over the bet and it was a tremendous strategy that paid dividends (37-26 straight up and 41-20-2 ATS). I’m following that same strategy with Patrick Mahomes, who is an incredible 9-1-1 ATS when listed as an underdog. Considering I’m so far behind the rest of the group with my bets in the playoffs, I’m tempted to grab the Chiefs moneyline at +160 but I’m taking the “one step at a time” approach to climb up the leaderboard.
Best Player Prop: Travis Kelce Anytime Touchdown (+100)
Last weekend Travis Kelce scored two touchdowns, which put him and Mahomes ahead of Brady and Rob Gronkowski for most TDs (16) by a quarterback/wide receiver/tight end tandem in NFL history. The greats elevate their game in the postseason and the Kelce/Mahomes connection is a special one.
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