NFL Week 11 odds, picks: Nick Foles beats Colts in Indy, Raiders blow out Bengals

We thought Week 9 had a nice amount of parity, but Week 10 completely blew us away. The Dolphins recorded their second win of the season against the Colts, the Falcons somehow blew out Drew Brees and the Saints and the Titans upstaged Patrick Mahomes‘ return to the field by blocking a field goal attempt on the last play of the game.

We also watched arguably the game of the year on Monday night, when the Seahawks handed the 49ers their first loss of the season, 27-24, in overtime. As someone who was all over the Seahawks moneyline, I went from depressed to giddy about 12 times during that matchup.

I have several teams avenging painful losses this week, and I’m also continuing to ride with the Raiders. Let’s jump in to my Week 11 picks.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Ravens -4

Who wasn’t impressed with the Ravens’ 49-13 win over the Bengals? I know it’s just the Bengals, but Lamar Jackson accounted for 288 total yards and four touchdowns. With that performance, Jackson joined Aaron Rodgers and Hall of Fame quarterback Joe Montana as the only players in the Super Bowl era to record at least three passing touchdowns, at least one rushing touchdown and a perfect passer rating in a single game with at least 15 completions, according to NFL.com. The Texans had a bye week to prepare for this game, and while they sit atop the AFC South at 6-3, they have been inconsistent this season. Deshaun Watson has thrown for five touchdowns and zero interceptions over the last two weeks, and we are going to find out soon if the Texans can run away with the division. They can start with beating the high-flying Ravens on the road, but that’s going to be a tough task. The Texans have only beaten the Ravens twice in their nine regular-season meetings, and I think Baltimore gets the job done again on Sunday.

The pick: Ravens 31-24 over Texans

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread: Cowboys -3.5

The Cowboys suffered a tough, 28-24 home loss to the Minnesota Vikings in primetime last week, and they will be motivated to get back into the win column on Sunday. The Lions have an injured quarterback and a weak secondary, so the Cowboys definitely have an opportunity to release some pent-up rage. Dak Prescott has historically been great against Detroit, and has thrown for five touchdowns and recorded a passer rating of 135.7 in his two career starts against the Lions. To put the Lions’ secondary into perspective, Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky threw for three touchdowns against them last week. He had thrown just two touchdowns the previous four games. Ezekiel Elliott also recorded a career high 240 scrimmage yards in his last meeting with the Lions, and he could be called upon a good amount if the Cowboys were to get out to an early lead. It’s too early to tell if Matthew Stafford will be able to suit up on Sunday after sitting out last week due to hip and back injuries. If Jeff Driskel gets the start, definitely take the Cowboys. If Stafford plays, still take the Cowboys because I don’t think he is healthy enough to will his team to victory.

The pick: Cowboys 30-17 over Lions

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Colts -3

Nick Foles is back, and his first action since the season opener will come against the divisional rival Colts. The 4-5 Jaguars may be last in the AFC South at this moment, but that division is really up for grabs. With Foles back, it’s possible that Jacksonville could go on a bit of a run, but that starts with the Colts on Sunday. Colts head coach Frank Reich told reporters on Wednesday that quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who missed last week’s game due to a sprained MCL, will practice fully and, as long as there are no setbacks, will start on Sunday. Still, I would rather take a healthy Foles over Brissett, who is coming off of what looked like a nasty knee injury. I feel like the Jaguars can turn over a new leaf with Foles under center, especially with a rejuvenated Leonard Fournette in the backfield. It’s been a little weird, Fournette has been his best on the road, and has rushed for over 100 yards in each of the last three road games. It will be interesting to see if Foles can bring some consistency to the passing game, and if that benefits Fournette on the ground in return. The Jaguars have won three out of the past four against the Colts, and I’m picking them to win with Foles on the road this week.

The pick: Jaguars 28-24 over Colts

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Raiders -10.5

Every home game from here on out is going to be a special for the Raiders, and they understand that. After being away from Oakland for almost two months, the Raiders have reeled off two straight home victories over the Lions and then the Chargers in primetime — both games being absolute thrillers. This team wants to do something special for the fans of Oakland before they take off for Las Vegas, and they are playing like every home game will be their last. Rookie Josh Jacobs is looking like a top running back in the NFL right now, and has 191 rushing yards and three touchdowns over the past two games at home. He’s averaging 115.2 yards per game and has seven rushing touchdowns in five career home games. The other first-round pick they have on defense, Clelin Ferrell, has also noticeably improved. He had a career-high 2.5 sacks last week, which are the most sacks made by a rookie in a single game in franchise history. As for the Bengals, I’m not sure what to say. They are now the worst team in the NFL and the quarterback change didn’t seem to provide much of a spark. Rookie Ryan Finley did show some flashes in the Bengals’ 49-13 loss to the Ravens, but he threw for just 167 yards, one touchdown, one interception and lost a fumble. Cincinnati is not a good team, and they have to play in front of the most excited fan base in the NFL right now. Just take the Raiders.

The pick: Raiders 38-14 over Bengals

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Point spread: Chiefs -3.5

Even though Nissan Stadium was full of red and Mahomes’ return to the field had the Chiefs amped, Kansas City still fell to Tennessee, 35-32. It was a back-and-forth game that came down to the final play, where Joshua Kalu blocked a 52-yard field goal that would have sent the game to overtime. Despite the loss, Mahomes threw for a season-high 446 yards and three touchdowns. He actually looked healthier than he has in a long time, and said after the game that the time he got off to heal from his knee injury also helped him rest the ankle injury that had been bothering him all season. I think the Chiefs’ loss to the Titans will end up being an outlier when it’s all said and done, and I also think Mahomes will have an outstanding game against the Chargers this week. Tyreek Hill again figures to be a big part of the game plan, as he caught a career-high 11 passes for 157 yards and a touchdown last week. Running back Damien Williams also has been playing well, and he will aim for his third game in a row with over 100 yards from scrimmage. He recorded 123 yards from scrimmage and two rushing touchdowns when the Chiefs played the Chargers last December. On the other side, quarterback Philip Rivers is coming off one of his worst games this season. He threw for 207 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions against the Raiders last week, but it should have been more like five interceptions. The Chargers are a decent team, but I don’t think they will be a match for a Chiefs team that is feeling extra motivated to get back into the win column after what transpired last week.

The pick: Chiefs 33-27 over Chargers