If you’re looking to get in on the action in Week 13, there are a lot of good options on the board. Pay particular attention to props for Alvin Kamara and Juwan Johnson this weekend when they come out. Both receivers are in a good spot Sunday with other Saints receivers out. While we wait for those lines to come out, though, here are my favorite early values for the slate.
Russell Wilson over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+130)
Maybe this is wishful thinking, but I know I am hoping for a shootout this weekend in the Broncos-Texans. Both teams have a lot to fight for, and the matchup is right for WIlson to throw a pair of scores. He’s exceeded this in six of 12 games this season, and the plus money is enticing. The Texans have allowed six passing touchdowns across their last four matchups.
Zack Moss over 77.5 rushing yards (-115)
The last time Moss faced the Titans, he had 195 all-purpose yards and two scores, so yeah, I’m in on Moss this weekend. I’m targeting the rushing prop today because the Titans have allowed an average of 95 rushing yards to opposing runners across the last three, and 83 rushing yards per game for the season. Moss exceeded this prop in four of the five games played without Jonathan Taylor this season. The Colts are averaging 121 rushing yards per game this year, and Moss should be in for a nice day.
Brian Robinson Jr. over 39.5 rushing yards (-125)
Yes, the Dolphins have been tough on the run lately and yes, the Dolphins are expected to win by a large margin, but both of those things were true about the Cowboys last week, and Robinson still exceeded his prop last Thursday. He’s exceeded this number in four of the last five, and in each of those games he logged double-digit carries. Antonio Gibson is averaging only a couple of attempts per game this year, and Robinson should be able to clear this low mark.
Najee Harris over 55.5 rushing yards (-115)
Harris has logged double-digit carries in all but two games this season, and he’s brought his yards per attempt up to 4.2 — a career best. Yes, Warren is the more explosive runner, but Harris continues to out-carry him, if only slightly. Harris has gone over this mark in three of his last four, and this week’s matchup with the Cardinals is very favorable, as no team has allowed more rushing yards per game across the last four contests (142). That means there is enough to go around for both Warren and Harris on Sunday.
Brandon Aiyuk over 59.5 receiving yards (-115)
Only the Buccaneers have allowed more receiving yards to wideouts this year than the Eagles. This game could be a shootout, and Aiyuk, who has the seventh-most receiving yards per game this season (88.1) and owns 34% of the Niners’ receiving yards, should be front and center.
Jaylen Waddle over 67.5 receiving yards (-115)
Waddle has had 100-plus receiving yards in two of his last four games, and he’s averaging 69 yards per game this season. The matchup couldn’t be much more favorable than vs. the Commanders, who have allowed the most receiving yards this season, and an average of 196 per game.
Jonathan Mingo over 28.5 receiving yards (-115)
We are going to jump in on this nice, low number for Mingo. The Buccaneers’ secondary has been terrible all season, allowing more than 195 receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts. There’s been a change of regime in Carolina, and I’ll bet on a better offensive output this weekend. Why not take the over on Mingo, who has been a starter all season and who led all Carolina wideouts last week with 60 receiving yards vs. the Titans.
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