The new-look New Orleans Pelicans have struggled out of the gates in the 2019 NBA season, dropping their first four games by an average of 7.2 points per matchup. And while they’ll have to wait a bit longer to get No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson (knee) back in the lineup, they should get a big boost from Jrue Holiday, who is listed as probable for tonight’s matchup against the Denver Nuggets, which tips at 9:30 p.m. ET from the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans. Denver is listed as a 4-point favorite in the latest Nuggets vs. Pelicans odds, while the over-under is set at 223, down from opening at 225.5. Before finalizing your own Nuggets vs. Pelicans picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and anyone who followed it last season saw massive returns. The model finished 300-252 on all its top-rated picks. On top-rated against-the-spread and money line NBA picks alone, the model returned a whopping $4,280.
Now it has locked in on Nuggets vs. Pelicans. We can tell you it’s leaning over, and it also has an extremely strong against-the-spread pick, saying one side hits in nearly 70 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.
The model is well aware of how ill-equipped the Pelicans are to deal with Nuggets star Nikola Jokic defensively. New Orleans ranks 28th in rebounding rate, and without center Derrick Favors, who is doubtful with a knee injury, the Pelicans are very thin in the front court. They turned to Jahlil Okafor as the starter in their most recent game, with rookies Nicolo Melli and Jaxson Hayes playing healthy minutes off the bench. Hayes is the only one of that trio with even average defensive instincts, but foul trouble will be a real concern for the youngster against a wily veteran like the Joker. Jokic is off to another strong start this season, picking up two triple-doubles in his first four games. He should have no issue exploiting New Orleans’ weaknesses.
Another matchup problem the Nuggets present to the Pelicans is their ability to slow down Ingram. Ingram has looked like a new man while playing small-ball power forward in the Pelicans’ uptempo system, averaging 27 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists. The strength of Denver’s defense is their plethora of versatile wing defenders, though. Paul Millsap, Jerami Grant, and Torrey Craig all take great pride in their defense and can each bring a different element to bother Ingram all night.
Just because Denver matches up well with New Orleans on paper, doesn’t mean it will cover the Nuggets vs. Pelicans spread on the road in New Orleans on Thursday.
The model is also aware that Holiday being back in the lineup should be a huge boost for New Orleans. The veteran out of UCLA has averaged at least 14 points per game every season in New Orleans since coming over from the Sixers in 2013-14. He’s also averaged around seven assists per game during that span, so his presence should open up opportunities for other scorers such as Brandon Ingram (27.3 ppg), Josh Hart (16.5 ppg) and J.J. Redick (9.5 ppg). Holiday will also be a welcomed presence on the defensive end for a New Orleans squad that enters this matchup ranked last in the NBA in scoring defense.
So who wins Pelicans vs. Nuggets? And which side of the spread cashes in nearly 70 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Pelicans vs. Nuggets spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
