Guardian writers’ predicted position: 18th (NB: this is not necessarily Michael Butler’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)
Last season’s position: 13th
Odds to win the league (via Oddschecker): 250-1
One could make the argument that there are only four teams that start this Premier League season weaker than the last. Liverpool have only signed a couple of teenagers but still have a first-team squad of European champions to fall back on. They’ll be OK. Chelsea, under a transfer embargo, have lost an excellent manager and their best player, but there is still a sense of optimism with the arrival of Frank Lampard and Christian Pulisic, as well as returning loanees such as Mason Mount and Tammy Abraham. For Crystal Palace and Newcastle United things are less clear, with the latter’s manager, Rafael Benítez, and their two top goal scorers last season, Solomón Rondón and Ayoze Pérez, now departed. As things stand, both clubs are relegation candidates.
The departure of Benítez in June is still particularly painful for those on Tyneside, if not at board level then certainly by the fans. The Spaniard’s name was still being sung by supporters during the pre-season match at Hibernian, with new manager Steve Bruce awkwardly looking on. They valued Benítez’s tactical nous, which saw Newcastle return to the Premier League at the first time of asking in 2016-17, before finishing 10th and then 13th with a threadbare squad. They valued the fact that he is a genuinely world-class manager – arriving in the north-east after leaving Real Madrid – and for a proud club that has been woefully short of stardust in recent years, this should not be underestimated. Most importantly, though, they valued Benítez’s integrity and patience in the face of Mike Ashley’s ownership, the latter of which eventually ran out.
Many fans have deemed to vote with their feet, honouring last season’s promise of ‘If Rafa goes, we go.’ Around 10,000 of the 42,000 season tickets remain unsold and 10 Newcastle supporter groups have combined to boycott the season opener against Arsenal, instead planning a protest march through the city from Sports Direct to St James’ Park. “Mr Ashley must realise that he is not welcome at our football club, and he is not welcome in our city,” a statement read. “Boycotting the Arsenal match is not a one-off and Mr Ashley needs to understand that this will not blow over.”
Some have suggested that the threat of hitting Ashley in his pocket has prompted the club’s summer spending, pointing out that the £40m signing of striker Joelinton last month came just days after the season tickets were made available on general sale (with a 5% price hike). That the club were willing to sanction a transfer of that size but unwilling to agree to Benitez’s requests has led to more bemusement.
Even if it is papering over the cracks, the arrival of Joelinton is a curious one. For a player that has never scored more than eight league goals in a season it is eye-wateringly expensive fee, but the striker fits with Ashley’s policy of buying young players with resale value and bases his game on much more than just finishing.
Comparisons with Roberto Firmino, on account of Joelinton also being a Brazilian striker making the move to England from Hoffenheim, are well wide of the mark. Standing at 6ft1in and with a wide frame, the 22-year-old is much more of a classic centre forward and is particularly good in the air, coming sixth in Germany’s top-flight last year for duels won (373).
Joelinton’s pace and power could suit that of the Premier League but it remains a huge risk. If he does not hit the ground running, or succumbs to injury, Newcastle’s only other recognised strikers are Dwight Gayle and Yoshinori Muto. “Joelinton will drive me crazy at times but he’s got electrifying pace and gets people on the edge of their seats,” said Bruce after the Brazilian got his first pre-season goal, which seems like a fair assessment.
Miguel Almirón’s relationship with Joelinton will be pivotal. The Paraguayan has shown flashes of brilliance since his own £21m move from the MLS in January, and with his first full pre-season behind him, will hope to show his best in a false nine role, dropping into the pockets of space as Joelinton crashes around between the centre-backs.
Newcastle only other permanent addition, save for youngsters Jake Turner and Kyle Scott, is the winger Allan Saint-Maximin, signed for £16.5m from Nice. This deal also comes with a few question marks, namely over the player’s attitude and personality, which got him into trouble on numerous occasions last season under Patrick Vieira. One instance, in which Saint-Maximin skipped training in April, caused Vieira to state: “Allan’s problem is that he thinks that talent is enough to go to the highest level. He needs to understand that he needs to work, to make sacrifices, to suffer. And sadly, he has not yet understood that.”
Parallels can be drawn between Saint-Maximin and Hatem Ben Arfa. The pair were born five miles apart from each other in the Parisian suburbs and arrived in Newcastle with a similar rap sheet. Ben Arfa, of course, blossomed in the north-east.
Newcastle is a place where an outsider can come to feel loved, but it is also a working-class city – flashiness off the pitch must be earned on it – and it was heartening to see Saint-Maximin ditched his trademark Gucci headband (often seen last season while playing for Nice) for a plain black one at his Newcastle unveiling. Both Saint-Maximin and Joelinton have been given six-year contracts, the longest at Newcastle since Alan Pardew and his backroom staff were all handed eight-year deals in 2012.
Bruce – a lifelong Newcastle fan – has only been awarded an initial three-year deal, but was given a warm reception at St James’ Park before a 2-1 friendly win over Saint-Étienne on Saturday. Being a Geordie manager is both a blessing and a curse for Bruce. The Newcastle fans regard the 58-year-old as one of their own – indeed he used to crawl under the turnstiles to sneak into St James’ Park as a boy – but he will also feel the criticism of the supporters that more keenly, if things do take a turn for the worse, just as John Carver, Alan Shearer and Kevin Keegan (in his second spell) did.
Bruce has brought in Jetro Willems on loan to add some much-needed pace to his defence, which continues to be ably lead by Jamaal Lascelles alongside Fabian Schär and Florian Lejeune. In midfield, the promising Sean Longstaff is still recovering from the knee ligament injury that curtailed his breakthrough season, which means there might be room for his teenage brother, Matthew, who has shone during pre-season. Elsewhere, it is a squad high on quantity but low on outstanding quality.
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Until then, much depends on Joelinton, who has “learned the history” of the No 9 shirt that he has been given, and all the expectation that that brings. Newcastle fans famously serenaded another Brazilian forward in the 1980s (to the tune of Do the Conga) – “We’ve got Mirandinha, he’s not from Argentina, he’s from Brazil, he’s fucking brill” – and Joelinton will be hoping for a chant of his own, perhaps riffing on a Dolly Parton number. Newcastle’s fans certainly need something positive to sing about.
