Guardian writers’ predicted position: 12th (NB: this is not necessarily Ben Fisher’s prediction but the average of our writers’ tips)
Last season’s position: 11th
Odds to win the league (via Oddschecker): 500-1
It is perhaps premature to ponder how high Southampton can soar under Ralph Hasenhüttl but given how he hauled them off the canvas, and the green shoots towards the end of last season, the sense is there is significant headroom for them to flourish. At the same time, such optimism proved short-lived last season and they cannot afford to head into this winter in such a perilous position with Danny Ings as the only redeeming light.
The story goes that Hasenhüttl offered to resign following that infamous 9-0 shellacking by Leicester but Martin Semmens, the chief executive, reassured the Austrian that he was the manager to lead Southampton in the long term, staying at St Mary’s until the early hours to dissect the defeat and prepare to right the wrongs. Sir Alex Ferguson sent a message of support, Southampton pressed the reset button and the rest, as they say, is history.
Hasenhüttl went on to sign a new four-year contract and steered the Saints to mid-table after losing one of their final nine matches, a sharp contrast to the start of the season when they were stodgy and opposition feasted on a soft centre. Hasenhüttl revamped his backline – Angus Gunn, Jannik Vestergaard, Yan Valery and Maya Yoshida fell out of favour – and tweaked tactics, reverting to the 4-2-2-2 he favoured at RB Leipzig.
Jack Stephens excelled in defence and James Ward-Prowse, who was given the captaincy in June, provided a welcome thrust in midfield but nobody embodied Hasenhüttl’s high-octane style better than Ings, who led from the front as if his life depended on it in between scoring 22 goals, one shy of the golden boot, with the striker’s emergence as a bona fide Premier League No 9 leading to a deserved England recall. They finished the campaign with authority and zip that they must build on if they are to take the next step and push towards Europa League qualification.
Whether they do so may hinge on whether they offload players whose faces do not fit. They have bolstered the defence with the permanent arrival of Kyle Walker-Peters, who matured as last season drew to a close, and Mohammed Salisu, a Ghanaian defender who made his La Liga debut last year and arrives with a burgeoning reputation, but are partly hamstrung by poor signings who define where things unravelled.
Guido Carrillo and Wesley Hoedt cost more than £34m but spent last season on loan at Leganes and Royal Antwerp respectively and eat into the wage budget. Fulham have helped by taking Mario Lemina and Harrison Reed off their hands – the former has departed on a season’s loan with a view to a permanent move and the latter for around £8m after impressing on loan in the Championship – but Fraser Forster, one of the club’s highest earners, has been reintegrated into the first team.
Hasenhüttl spent much of lockdown with his family in Munich but returned with a priceless tool: a complete Southampton playbook, a digital manual backed up by video clips to help buttress the club’s philosophy and set a blueprint for everyone from coaching staff to academy players. It is hoped such an identity will ease the path to the first team; Will Smallbone, a dainty midfielder comfortable in the heat of battle, and Jake Vokins, an explosive left-back, have made such a transition, and Oludare Olufunwa, 19, Nathan Tella, 21, Will Ferry, 19 and Alexandre Jankewitz, 18, have also impressed Hasenhüttl.
The primary concerns are the most obvious ones: can Ings, who scored almost half of their league goals, stay clear of injury? Che Adams displayed plenty of promise, finishing last season in style after a 29-game wait for his first strike in a Southampton shirt, and Michael Obafemi and Shane Long are pests but mustered nine league goals between them last season. And will they finally remedy their wretched home form? Southampton overcame Manchester City and Sheffield United at home after the restart but only relegated Norwich had a worse home record. Hasenhüttl re-energised Southampton when they were at their lowest ebb but troubling the top 10 again represents another challenge.
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Southampton’s history in 100 words
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“Johnstone’s Paint Trophy, you’ll never win that,” is a chorus wheeled out by supporters now and then and, that victory over Carlisle aside, they have not savoured a trophy since 1976, when Lawrie McMenemy’s side shocked Manchester United to win the FA Cup. Gone are the days of Matt Le Tissier walloping the ball in and the former World Cup-winning rugby union coach Sir Clive Woodward as technical director, but things have not been dull since their top-flight return in 2012; four years ago they beat Internazionale at St Mary’s in the Europa League and reached the League Cup final four months later.
The manager
On the touchline Hasenhüttl cuts an animated figure but is mastering the art of self-restraint after allowing his emotions to get the better of him, memorably retreating to his technical area after taking the lead against Arsenal before forgetting to shake hands with Unai Emery.
On Zoom Charismatic but straight-talking. Poked fun at his greying beard – first adopted out of superstition to halt a losing run – and occasionally channels his inner Gary Lineker by donning reading spectacles, but not only when things get serious.
Ralph Hasenhüttl, the charismatic but straight-talking manager. Photograph: Matt Watson/Southampton FC/Getty Images
The key
Ings was a solitary strike from adding the golden boot to his mantelpiece. If the 28-year-old, a workhorse as well as a lethal finisher, can stay clear of injury and mirror such form, Southampton have the perfect platform for a season to remember.
The owners
Southampton became the second Premier League club to come under Chinese ownership when Gao Jisheng acquired an 80% stake for about £210m three years ago but fans remain unconvinced. Gao, a real estate magnate who wants the club to be self-sufficient, is a lesser-spotted figure and his London-based daughter, Nelly, and Semmens run the club.
Young blood
Vokins and Smallbone scored on their debuts in January and have since signed long-term contracts. Smallbone, a tidy midfielder eligible for the Republic of Ireland, picked up the man-of-the-match award on his first Premier League start in February and was in the thick of things after the restart.
New blood
It is three years since Salisu swapped dirt pitches in the Ghanaian town of Nsawam for a crack at La Liga and after an impressive breakthrough season at Real Vallodolid, during which he tamed Gareth Bale and Diego Costa, the 21-year-old defender – a £10.9m signing – arrives with a burgeoning reputation.
Mohammed Salisu (right) tussles with Lionel Messi during Real Valladolid’s La Liga clash with Barcelona at the Camp Nou in October. Photograph: Jeroen Meuwsen/Soccrates Images/Getty Images
Kit story
Red and white stripes are synonymous with Saints but the first strip of St Mary’s Young Men’s Association, the club’s founders, in 1885 was white with a red sash, a design they replicated in 2010 and nodded to for their 135-year anniversary this season.
Notes from an empty stadium
The Saints are Coming still blares pre-match but the scoreboard now beams messages of support to key workers and outside an 8ft fence, decorated with club graphics and mantras, runs around the perimeter of the ground.
Euros vision
Ings is the obvious one but Gareth Southgate is a big admirer of Ward-Prowse, previously his England Under-21s captain. The versatile midfielder played every minute in the Premier League last season, covering every blade of grass in the process.
