Long before the Christmas fixtures actually get under way, the annual complaints begin about there being too many games in too short a space of time.
But is it actually that bad and do we overstate the importance of such a short period in shaping the outcome of the season? With today’s larger squads, fitter players and more informed coaches, is a fixture list of four games in 12 or 14 days really that difficult?
Until 1965 English league games were played on Christmas Day (this continued until 1976 in Scotland) and the teams played reverse fixtures 24 hours later on Boxing Day. Often they would play three games in four days.
This year, coronavirus issues not withstanding, in the Premier League there are four games planned in a 14-day window.
In this modern era of the 20-team league, there have been 26 completed seasons, one disrupted by Covid-19, giving most teams four matches during the festive period – one just before Christmas, two between Boxing Day and New Year’s Day and one early in the New Year before the third round of the FA Cup. The availability of 12 points can energise a title challenge or drag a struggling team to safety.
At the top, the team in first place on 19 December wins the league 54% of the time.
The average points won by the eventual champions over Christmas is 8.6, while the runners up earn an average of 7.4 points, opening up a slightly larger gap going in to the second half of the season.
| Points | How many times? |
| 4 | 2 |
| 5 | 2 |
| 6 | 5 |
| 7 | 3 |
| 8 | 0 |
| 9 | 5 |
| 10 | 6 |
| 11 | Not possible in four games |
| 12 | 3 |
What about the 46% of teams that couldn’t hold on despite being top in December? Of these clubs, the ones that acquire six or more points at Christmas have the consolation of keeping second place but those getting five points or less are left to battle for the last two Champions League places, though no team that has topped the table going into Christmas has ever finished lower than fourth.
There is bad news for Liverpool, who are second going into this season’s round of festive fixtures. Historically, the team in second place before the Christmas schedule begins has won the title only 19% of the time, finishing second in 46% of seasons and missing out on the top four altogether 15% of the time.
Speaking of Liverpool, they have lost the Christmas-time advantage more than anyone else. Five times they have led the way on 19 December and only once captured the title, averaging 5.8 points in the seasons they failed, but wining nine points over Christmas during their triumphant 2019-20 campaign.
On the other hand, Chelsea have been the most ruthless. The Blues have held the top spot on six occasions and converted the lead into silverware five times, while averaging nine points over Christmas.
Why a strong Christmas can be key to avoiding relegation
Teams in the bottom three on 19 December have been relegated 59% of the time. Sometimes the deficit is just too much to claw back no matter how well you do at Christmas. Thirteen teams have been in the bottom three with nine points or less by 19 December and all have ultimately been relegated.
Luckily for the current cellar-dwellers Burnley, Norwich and Newcastle, they have all surpassed the nine-point cut-off and so are in with a chance.
Historically, bottom-three teams with 16 or more points going into Christmas have never been relegated but none of this year’s three have reached that total yet.
So what about the teams going into Christmas with between 10 and 15 points? What kind of return over Christmas will give realistic hope in the new year? For teams with this amount of points Christmas is so important. A haul of 0-3 points has historically allowed 33% of these to avoid the drop, while a modest increase to 4-6 sees 53% retain their Premier League status.
Where you are in the table has an impact too, aside from the actual number of points. Only Leicester City and West Bromwich Albion have found themselves dead last before the festive games and then survived at the season’s end.
Teams in 18th place have survived almost 70% of the time with around four points won at Christmas, while teams just a single place lower have won more points on average but less than half of them have survived.
| 18th | 69% | 3.9 |
| 19th | 46% | 4.6 |
| 20th | 8% | 3.9 |
Looking at the teams that did get out of the bottom three over Christmas, they tend to do well for the rest of the season. Nineteen times a club has pulled out of the bottom three by the start of January and of these 74% have managed to stay out of trouble.
Coventry (in 1996-97) and Southampton (in 2019-20) both gained 10 points at Christmas and rose from the bottom three to 12th in the table.
So there’s hope yet for all teams, but for the likes of Newcastle, who face the two Manchester sides over Christmas, the likelihood of a double-figure points return is probably going to take something of a Christmas miracle.
