The Premier League title race is not over yet but, in terms of predictions, we already have a winner.
BBC Sport’s football expert Chris Sutton, in his debut season in the predictions hot seat after taking over from Mark Lawrenson, has just wrapped up a resounding victory over his guests, which has been confirmed with three weeks to go.
It is effectively his second Premier League success, 28 years after he won the actual title while playing for Blackburn Rovers, and it clearly means just as much – although this time there is no trophy and he had to provide his own champagne.
“I lost to my guest for the first three weeks so, after the way I started the season, this is the stuff of miracles,” said Sutton. “It’s one of the great comebacks – a real footballing fairytale, especially to win it so early, with a few weeks to spare.
“I’ve limped over the line a little, to be honest, because there have been some very strange results recently. Last Monday, for example, when there were 21 goals in three games, including five from Everton who normally take a month to score that many.
“Still, it’s nice to be able to sit back and celebrate after getting it done.”
Sutton is making predictions for all 380 Premier League matches this season, against a variety of guests.
This weekend he is taking on Joe Elliott, frontman of rock legends Def Leppard and a Sheffield United fan.
Def Leppard’s new album, Drastic Symphonies, is released on 19 May, the same date they play a special hometown gig at iconic Sheffield venue the Leadmill.
The Leadmill is one of many small UK music clubs threatened by closure and all proceeds from the gig will go towards the Music Venue Trust, which has been set up to help grassroots venues around the country survive.
Def Leppard then embark on their biggest ever European tour, including dates at Sheffield United’s Bramall Lane on 22 May and Wembley Stadium on 1 July.
With the Blades’ automatic promotion back to the Premier League already secured, Elliott is glad he does not have to worry about suffering play-off heartbreak at either venue and can focus on performing instead.
“After our warm-up at the Leadmill to raise awareness for little clubs, our first proper gig is at Bramall Lane which is always a big deal for us.
“I get the excitement about the play-offs from a neutral’s point of view because you get this big game at Wembley, but we lost in the semi-finals last year and I’m glad we don’t have to go through all of that again.
“It also makes our Bramall Lane gig that much easier because we don’t have to deal with having a play-off game this weekend. Instead of worrying about who might be at home first, they can set up properly for the gig now.
“We had to move it once because of the play-offs and it wouldn’t have been an issue this time, but it’s nice not to have to worry about it at all.
“It’s the same with Wembley. Every time I have been there with Sheffield United we have lost. I missed the FA Cup semi-final against Manchester City because I was too busy but I didn’t particularly want to go because I am bad luck.
“The only visit I really wanted this year was to play there, not to go and watch my team there – so with us going up I am buzzing about everything at the moment.”
The Blades are back in the big time after a two-year absence but Elliott is not sure how they will do next season – he just hopes they stay up.
“It’s difficult to know exactly how we will do because a lot of our players are out of contract and it doesn’t look like we will be able to spend much,” he explained.
“When we went up last time, under Chris Wilder in 2019, we were like a breath of fresh air and finished ninth.
“But that was because of our fans – for teams like us, the crowd really is the 12th man so we really missed them when the games were played behind closed doors after lockdown.
“With 30,000 people behind us, I’d like to think we can make the top half again but I am realistic and even finishing 17th would be incredible. It all depends on who Heckers [manager Paul Heckingbottom] keeps and how he can motivate whoever he gets on board.”
| When? | Result | Sutton | Joe |
| SATURDAY, 13 MAY | |||
| Leeds v Newcastle | x-x | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Aston Villa v Tottenham | x-x | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Chelsea v Nottingham Forest | x-x | 2-1 | 1-0 |
| Crystal Palace v Bournemouth | x-x | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Man Utd v Wolves | x-x | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| Southampton v Fulham | x-x | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| SUNDAY, 14 MAY | |||
| Brentford v West Ham | x-x | 2-0 | 2-2 |
| Everton v Man City | x-x | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Arsenal v Brighton | x-x | 2-2 | 2-0 |
| MONDAY, 15 MAY | |||
| Leicester v Liverpool | x-x | 1-3 | 1-3 |
A correct result (picking a win, draw or defeat) is worth 10 points. The exact score earns 40 points.
SUTTON’S PREDICTIONS
SATURDAY, 13 MAY
Leeds v Newcastle (12:30 BST)
I understand why Leeds can take heart from the scoreline in their 2-1 defeat at Manchester City last week, but the way the game went for the first 85 minutes or so was far less encouraging for Sam Allardyce’s side.
After this game, Leeds have got West Ham away and Tottenham at home to end their season. At this point it is difficult to know how many points they will need to stay up, but they simply have to get something from this game.
A win would probably lift them out of the bottom three and would be absolutely massive, but I just don’t see it happening.
Newcastle are still looking to close out a top-four finish, and the fact they lost last week probably makes Leeds’ task even harder.
We know how Eddie Howe’s side play and I think we will see a response from them after that defeat by Arsenal.
Yes, Elland Road will be raucous because of what is at stake for the home side but I don’t think Newcastle will be fazed by that, and their forward line will be too strong for the Leeds backline.
Leeds will sit in and try to hit Newcastle on the counter – that’s the Allardyce way – but it didn’t work against City and it won’t work here, either.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-3
Joe’s prediction: Newcastle are fantastic and I get such a kick from watching that team play. I love Eddie Howe – he’s a great coach and seems like a really nice man as well. This is going to be an away win – I like Big Sam, and having Yorkshire teams in the Premier League is a good thing, for the rivalry between us and them, but they are shipping goals like crazy. That was all right before, because they would win 4-3, but now they are just losing and not scoring goals, and I don’t see how they can keep Newcastle out for 90 minutes. 0-2
Aston Villa v Tottenham (15:00)
This is a big game, because if Villa win by more than two goals they will leapfrog Tottenham in the table.
As well as being important it is almost impossible to call, and I suppose the safest thing to do is to predict a draw. I don’t like doing that, though.
Villa have slipped up a couple of times recently but I really have no idea which Spurs side will show up and I cannot back them when they are so inconsistent.
Unai Emery’s side won 2-0 at Tottenham this season, so I am going for them to do the double.
Sutton’s prediction: 2-1
Joe’s prediction: This is a tough one to call because Tottenham need to pull their finger out and Villa are on a big upswing under Emery. Villa are at home, though, and I think they will just about edge it. 2-1
Chelsea v Nottingham Forest (15:00)
I may have won the predictions title this season but Chelsea did their best to destroy me. I should have just picked one outcome – win, lose or draw – at the start of the season and stuck with that all along, saying the same every week. I probably would have picked up more points from their games that way.
I don’t seem to be able to call Chelsea right whatever I try, so this time I am basing my prediction purely on Nottingham Forest’s abysmal away record.
Forest have just one win and six points from 17 games on the road, where they are conceding an average 2.4 goals a game.
Surely they won’t get anything at Stamford Bridge – although this is Chelsea we are talking about. Blues interim manager Frank Lampard got his first win last week, although I am not sure they deserved to beat Bournemouth.
Now Frank needs a home win, and despite my better judgement I am going with them to get it. Stand by for a Forest victory then… nothing would surprise me here.
Sutton’s prediction: 2-1
Joe’s prediction: Forest seem to be finally getting to grips with the Premier League, but Chelsea have just won a game after a very long wait! This will be close and it might even be controversial… but I’m going for Chelsea to win this one too. 1-0
Crystal Palace v Bournemouth (15:00)
This is probably the only Premier League game with nothing riding on it.
Crystal Palace beat Bournemouth at the start of the year in what turned out to be Patrick Vieira’s final win as Eagles boss – two months before his departure.
This time? I’m going for a bore draw but I want to give credit to Gary O’Neil, who has done a brilliant job as Bournemouth boss. Like Palace under Roy Hodgson, he has put together a really well-organised team.
I’ve written the Cherries off many times this season so it is probably bad news for their fans that I am going with them to get a draw here – I did that last week and they lost to Chelsea, and it will no doubt happen again.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-1
Joe’s prediction: This is going to be another tight game. 1-0
Manchester United v Wolves (15:00)
I am starting to slightly worry about Manchester United. They have lost their past two games, and only managed one goal in the past 315 minutes they’ve played.
Most of their problems have come away from Old Trafford but the heat is really on them now, because Liverpool are right on their tail in the race for the top four.
Wolves look super-organised under Julen Lopetegui, which is why it was a surprise when they got absolutely spanked at Brighton a couple of weeks ago.
This game is going to be a lot closer than that, because Manchester United are nowhere near as expansive as the Seagulls are, but as long as David de Gea puts his gloves on the right way, I still think Erik ten Hag’s side will find a way to win.
Sutton’s prediction: 2-0
Joe’s prediction: Wolves have nothing to play for but United are still looking for something to get a top-four spot. I think United will swing it, although if De Gea has another stinker it could go the other way. 2-0
Southampton v Fulham (15:00)
Fulham will win. I said I wasn’t going to back Southampton again after seeing them capitulate at home to Bournemouth a couple of weeks ago and haven’t changed my mind.
Yes, I guess you could say Saints showed fighting spirit against Nottingham Forest last time out but they still lost, and it was a game they desperately needed to win.
Southampton aren’t mathematically down yet but even if they win their three remaining games – and they won’t – it probably would not be enough. Let’s not pretend an escape is possible because they are relegated – they know it, and everyone else knows it.
Fulham continue to look lively and have carried a real attacking threat while Aleksandar Mitrovic has been suspended. I didn’t expect either to be the case but they keep on proving me wrong and I am going for them to win again here.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-2
Joe’s prediction: Saints are gone. Even if they win their next three games 6-0 then they are still going to go down, I think. So, one team in red-and-white stripes drops out, and another in red-and-white stripes comes in – they just need to give us their kit! They are going to lose this one too, sadly – Fulham haven’t dropped off at all. 1-2
SUNDAY, 14 MAY
Brentford v West Ham (14:00)
Unless everything goes against them, I think West Ham already have enough points to stay up – their superior goal difference means Leeds need to win all three of their remaining games to overhaul them, while Leicester need seven points from a possible nine.
But the Hammers aren’t quite safe yet, which means they have still got to find a balance over the next few days about who to play in their Premier League games and Europa Conference League semi-final against AZ Alkmaar.
Bearing that in mind, this looks like an extremely tricky game for them. Brentford beat them at London Stadium this season and we know how well-organised the Bees will be.
Sutton’s prediction: 2-0
Joe’s prediction: This is an interesting one. West Ham are doing great in Europe but it’s not been the same story for them in the league. I’ve not gone for any draws but this one will end up even. 2-2
Everton v Manchester City (14:00)
How this game goes depends on which Manchester City team we see – my concern for them here is how much they rotate their squad before the second leg of their Champions League semi-final against Real Madrid next week.
Everton boss Sean Dyche played a tactical blinder in his side’s big win at Brighton in the way they sat in, playing very narrow, and then hit them with quick counter-attacks.
I can see Dyche doing the same this time, because they carry a real threat on the break. Dominic Calvert-Lewin is looking stronger now – that Brighton game was his fourth start in a row after an injury-hit season – while Dwight McNeil had a stormer against the Seagulls.
It’s quite an obvious thing to say but I think the first goal will be absolutely crucial. City should still have enough quality to win, even with one eye on the Real tie, but Everton could make it extremely difficult for them.
I am covering the City versus Real game next week for BBC Radio 5 Live. I think City are the better team and they should get through it but it is going to be the big moments that decide that tie, just like when they met last year.
As for Everton, my choice of who goes down with Southampton changes every week but that win at Amex Stadium was massive for the Toffees.
They finish their season at Wolves then at home to Bournemouth. Even if they lose to City, I think they can win one of those games and 35 points might be enough.
At the moment I am going with Leicester and Leeds to be relegated, but ask me again next week and I might give you a different answer.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-2
Joe’s prediction: God bless Sean Dyche and his unreal voice. His side did fantastic last time, but I don’t think it’s a pattern. City are on a roll and I can’t see Everton stopping them. At best they might get a goal but I don’t see it. 0-3
Arsenal v Brighton (16:30)
What a great game this will be, and I am fascinated to see how both sides approach it.
Brighton love teams who come at them, and that was their issue with Everton last week – the Toffees just would not come out, even when they were ahead.
The Seagulls persisted in playing through the middle in that game, trying to create overloads, but Everton played with such a narrow five in midfield that there was no space to play through them.
You might think that losing 5-1 at home to Everton might knock Brighton’s confidence, but I don’t think it will. Roberto de Zerbi’s side will carry on playing the same way and they might have more joy against Arsenal.
I don’t think Mikel Arteta will back down and show more caution than normal – he can’t because it is Arsenal at Emirates Stadium.
So, I am going for an open game, lots of goals… and the points to be shared.
Sutton’s prediction: 2-2
Joe’s prediction: Brighton have been phenomenal but I think they have just about peaked. They have done really well but they’ve probably realised they are not quite going to get into Europe. The foot might have come off the gas a little bit and there is no way they are going to beat an Arsenal side who need the points as much as Manchester City do. 2-0
MONDAY, 15 MAY
Leicester v Liverpool (20:00)
Leicester midfielder James Maddison criticised his team’s performance after their defeat by Fulham on Monday. I get that, but he hasn’t been decisive enough himself at times, like his penalty which was saved against Everton recently.
The Foxes really need to start doing their talking on the pitch, but I think they are in for a tough night against a Liverpool side who have won six games in a row and have their eyes firmly on a Champions League spot.
Liverpool are just relentless at the moment, and Leicester leak a lot of goals whoever they play because their defence is so bad.
It should be an entertaining game because both teams are much better when they come forward, and I also think Dean Smith’s side will score – but Liverpool will score more, and I can only see one outcome.
Sutton’s prediction: 1-3
Joe’s prediction: It’s a Liverpool win all the way for me but I think Leicester will give them a game because they’ve got no choice – they are at home and need to go for it. Jamie Vardy is still well capable of getting them a goal, but Liverpool have got a bit of calmness about them that they didn’t have earlier in the season. 1-3
Chris Sutton and Joe Elliott were speaking to BBC Sport’s Chris Bevan.
How did Sutton do last time?
From last weekend’s Premier League fixtures, Sutton got four correct results from 10 matches, with no exact scores, giving him a total of 40 points.
He beat Carnival Row star Andrew Gower, who got three correct results with no exact scores, for a total of 30 points.
| Ben Bruce of Asking Alexandria | 230 |
| Keke from 1Xtra | 140 |
| Gaz Coombes | 120 |
| Ali Bruce-Ball, Modernlove drummer Cian McCluskey, Jack Rowan | 110 |
| Liam Fray of The Courteeners | 100 |
| Living With Chucky writer and director Kyra Gardner, Editors bassist Russell Leetch | 80 |
| Blanco, Ian Broudie, GK from Bad Boy Chiller Crew, Corey Deshon, Joelah from 1Xtra, Kasabian’s Serge Pizzorno, Aaron Moorhead, Phoenix singer Thomas Mars | 70 |
| Chris Sutton (average after 35 weeks) | 69 |
| AntsLive, Evil Dead Rise writer and director Lee Cronin, Ronnie Huxford from Those Damn Crows, Ross MacDonald from The 1975, Chris Batten, Black Honey guitarist Chris Ostler, Ryan Porteous | 60 |
| Justin Benson, Al Greenwood from Sports Team, Dapz on the Map, Chesney Hawkes, Maulo | 50 |
| Blake Bowman, Tom from Dry Cleaning | 40 |
| Andrew Gower, Jessica McHale, Olivia Chomczuk, Casper van Dien, DMA’S frontman Tommy O’Dell, Oli Shasha from FEET, Stereophonics guitarist Adam Zindani | 30 |
| Juice Menace, DJ Schak, Patrick Whelan | 20 |
| Trampolene frontman Jack Jones | 10 |
| Chris Sutton | 2,410 |
| Guests | 2,330 |
| P35 | W21 | D1 | L13 |
Two of Chris’ 21 wins are from incomplete gameweeks and the outcome of those could be changed by the remaining fixtures. However, even if he loses both those weeks, he would lead 19-15, with only three full gameweeks remaining.
How did you get on?
The surprise results caught you out too – only 16% of you thought Chelsea would beat Bournemouth, and just 8% went for an Everton win at Brighton.
| Position | Correct results |
| 1. You | 5/10 |
| 2. Chris | 4/10 |
| 3. Guest | 3/10 |
*Win, draw, loss prediction based on highest % of vote for each match.
| 1. You | 179/347 (52%) |
| 2. Chris | 165/347 (48%) |
| 3. Guests | 160/347 (46%) |
