Arsenal’s stuttering title challenge was dealt another blow as the Premier League leaders drew 3-3 at home to bottom club Southampton on Friday.
The Gunners could have gone seven points clear going into Wednesday’s huge game with second-placed Manchester City, but were 3-1 down at one stage before fighting back with two late goals to rescue a point.
They showed good spirit to come back but a third successive draw has gifted City yet another helping hand in a dramatic title race.
The Gunners, who are chasing their first title since 2004, hold a five-point lead over City, but Pep Guardiola’s side have two games in hand and host Mikel Arteta’s team on 26 April in what could be the decisive fixture.
Friday’s draw was preceded by 2-2 draws with West Ham and Liverpool with Arsenal giving away a two-goal lead in both games.
City have a superior goal difference – 50 to Arsenal’s 43 – and have won 10 of their past 11 games in all competitions, scoring 38 goals and conceding only five.
While Arsenal have six league matches remaining, City are still in the hunt for the FA Cup and Champions League, and could have a packed schedule until the end of the season with as many as 13 games.
Simon Gleave, head of sports analysis at data analyst Nielsen’s Gracenote, said: “The incredible late comeback by Arsenal against Southampton failed to result in the win they needed to keep their title-winning chance stable.
“The 3-3 draw means that Arsenal’s chance of winning this season’s Premier League is down from 32% to 21% according to our Euro Club Index.
“Manchester City’s probability of a third successive league title has increased to 79% with Arsenal dropping points for the third match in a row.”
Gracenote has worked out the percentage chance Arsenal and City have of winning their remaining matches.
| Arsenal | % win chance | Man City | % win chance |
| Sheffield United (FA Cup semi-final) 22 April | |||
| Man City (a) 26 April | 16% | Arsenal (h) 26 April | 62% |
| Fulham (a) 30 April | 75% | ||
| Chelsea (h) 2 May | 53% | ||
| West Ham (h) 3 May | 80% | ||
| Newcastle (a) 7 May | 41% | Leeds (h) 7 May | 87% |
| Brighton (h) 14 May | 59% | ||
| Potential CL semi-final 9/10 May | |||
| Everton (a) 14 May | 76% | ||
| Potential CL semi-final 16/17 May | |||
| Nottingham Forest (a) 20 May | 66% | Chelsea (h) 20 May | 71% |
| Wolves (h) 28 May | 69% | Brentford (a) 28 May | 71% |
| Brighton (a) TBC because of FA Cup participation | 62% | ||
| Potential FA Cup final 3 June | |||
| Potential CL final 10 June |
Arsenal have not beaten City in the league since 2015.
They have met twice this season, with City winning 1-0 in the FA Cup in January and 3-1 in the league in February.
But Arsenal may have history on their side.
According to Opta, 13 sides in the top flight have had 73 or more points after 30 games (when adapted to three points for a win) and only two of those failed to win the title – Manchester United in 2011-12 and Liverpool in 2018-19.
Less reassuringly for Arsenal fans, it was City who finished as champions on both those occasions.
City are specialists at this stage of the season. They have collected 145 points in the final 10 matches of the past six seasons combined – more than any other team.
