Projected 2023 NFL draft order: Which team will pick No. 1 overall?

Oct 7, 2022

ESPN staff

The winless Houston Texans have the best chance to pick No. 1 overall in the 2023 NFL draft, according to the updated projections from the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI).

The 0-3-1 Texans — who picked third in the 2022 draft — have a 33.2% chance to land the top selection, and they’re followed by the 1-3 Pittsburgh Steelers (14.5%), who just benched quarterback Mitch Trubisky in favor of rookie first-rounder Kenny Pickett.

There already have been five trades involving first-round picks for next April’s draft, with the Texans, Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles in line to have two selections in Round 1. The Miami Dolphins would have been the fifth team, but they were stripped of their own pick because of violations of league policies relating to the integrity of the game. That means there are only 31 picks in the first round for 2023.

Every week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations. The order is based on the records the model believes the teams will have after 17 games, and the order is based on each team’s average draft position in the simulations.

Check out the full 1-31 projection for the 2023 NFL draft (updated Oct. 7):

Average draft position: 4.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 34.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 76.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 92.3%

Average draft position: 6.3
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 14.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 54.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 80.4%

Average draft position: 7.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 8.5%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 44.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 74.9%

Average draft position: 7.6
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 43.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 73.4%

Average draft position: 8.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 36.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 65.5%

Average draft position: 9.4
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 5.3%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 33.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 62.8%

Average draft position: 9.5
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 4.2%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 30.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 62.4%

Average draft position: 10.76
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.9%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 23.2%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 53.3%

Average draft position: 10.7
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 23.7%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 53.8%

Average draft position: 11.0
FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 2.8%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 23.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 50.2%

Average draft position: 11.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 20%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 46.4%

Average draft position: 12.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 16%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 40.%

Average draft position: 12.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 13.8%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 39.2%

Average draft position: 13.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 15.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 39.9%

Average draft position: 14.9
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 10%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 30.5%

Average draft position: 15.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 8.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 28.3%

Average draft position: 17.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 5.6%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 20.3%

Average draft position: 18.3
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 5.5%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 18.4%

Average draft position: 18.8
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.3%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 12.3%

Average draft position: 19.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 13.8%

Average draft position: 20.1
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 8.7%

Average draft position: 20.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 0.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 5.9%

Average draft position: 20.7
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.9%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 8.6%

Average draft position: 21.5
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1.4%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 7.2%

Average draft position: 22.0
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 5.9%

The Miami Dolphins‘ own first-round pick is projected to land at No. 26, but the team was stripped of the pick because of violations of league policies relating to the integrity of the game. Therefore, this pick will get skipped, and there will be only 31 first-round picks in the 2023 draft.