If you have ever been haunted by a missed opportunity, you can relate to the Houston Rockets. On May 26, 2018, they led the Golden State Warriors by 17 points after the first quarter of Game 6 of the conference finals and by 10 at halftime. The lead was gone less than three minutes into the second half, and they lost by 29. On May 28, they led by 11 at halftime of Game 7, and, despite missing a horrifying 27 3-pointers in a row, trailed by just six with five minutes left. They ended up losing by nine. Had they won either game, they would have advanced to the Finals and been favored against the Cleveland Cavaliers. At one point, according to general manager Daryl Morey, their championship odds were above 50 percent.
That team was awesome. James Harden and Chris Paul were the two best isolation players in the league. Their switch-heavy defense was monstrous, forcing teams to uncomfortably join their hero-ball party. The preseason questions about fit and chemistry seemed foolish, even though they came up short.
On May 8, 2019, Houston and Golden State were tied (in the game and in their second-round series) entering the fourth quarter of Game 5. Kevin Durant had just suffered a calf injury, but the Rockets couldn’t take advantage, losing by five points. On May 10, they held Stephen Curry to the first scoreless half of his playoff career and led by seven with 11 minutes left. Curry finished with 33 points, and they lost by five again. During the game, Harden and Paul had “tense” verbal exchanges, as reported by The Athletic’s Shams Charania and ESPN’s Tim MacMahon, about Harden’s ball dominance. Had they won the series, they would have advanced to the conference finals and been heavily favored against the Portland Trail Blazers.
That team was awesome … at times. Harden got even better after his MVP season, but Paul’s efficiency declined — especially when on the floor with Harden. They missed the savvy defense of Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute, and they ended the Carmelo Anthony era after just 10 games. Morey’s front office had to plug holes, adding Austin Rivers, Kenneth Faried, Danuel House, Michael Carter-Williams and Iman Shumpert midseason. There was a sense that things were falling apart when they were 11-14 and a sense that they had solved all their problems after they finished the regular season with the league’s second-best record and net rating from that point onward. Neither was correct, and now they’re trying something different.
Stylistically, Russell Westbrook is the antithesis of Paul. Houston traded a clinical point guard for a maniacal one. It swapped a 34-year-old future Hall of Famer who can’t shake defenders like he used to for a 30-year-old future Hall of Famer whose biggest strength is getting the rim at will. It is betting that Westbrook will thrive in coach Mike D’Antoni’s system, that he will shoot much better than he did last season, that he will make them more difficult to defend. Maybe the Rockets think he and Harden will play off each other in a way that Paul and Harden didn’t. (They took turns.)
There is a real possibility that this blows up in their faces, and that Paul proves he can stay healthy and play an elite level for several more years. There is also a possibility that the Paul-Harden partnership had run its course, and that the days of Paul being a top-tier point guard are over. Westbrook’s availability on the trade market gave the Rockets a chance to move Paul for a younger star who just so happens to be close with Harden, so they took a big swing. They know opportunities can disappear just like that.
Glowing quote
“To get a recent MVP, I think only four times in NBA history a team has had two MVPs in a three-year span on the same team, and it’s always ended in a championship. Now, obviously, we’re going to have to go out and win it, but it’s a pretty good formula.” – Morey
What could have been
They could have run it back, and I bet they would have if they had been more poised against Golden State and made the Finals. Assuming they wanted to shake things up, though, they could have perhaps traded Clint Capela or Eric Gordon. (Instead, they extended the 30-year-old Gordon on a four-year, $76 million deal, in which the fourth year becomes guaranteed if he makes an All-Star team or Houston wins a title, per ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski.) I doubt there was another Paul deal out there that would have allowed the Rockets to remain a contender.
Taking the temperature
A hypothetical conversation between someone who thinks the Rockets are ready for liftoff and someone who doesn’t
Optimistic fan: This is going to be so good for Russ. He has the space he needs and a coach who typically gets the most out of attacking point guards. I’m ready for a career season, and I see them as the favorites for the title. I know you’re going to say the same boring stuff every nerd has said about their fit, so I’ll preemptively say this: Don’t underestimate the fact that he and Harden wanted to play together again. They’re smart and they’ll figure it out.
Skeptical fan: Harden and Paul wanted to play together, too — how did that end? I get that there is a personal relationship here, but I’m more interested in the basketball relationship, which reminds me more of the doomed Harden-Jeremy Lin experiment than the Harden-Paul one in terms of compatibility. I will also point out that, this time last year, people were talking themselves into Carmelo in Houston. He wasn’t waived after 10 games because the guys didn’t like him; he was waived because his awful defense made him a poor fit. Is Westbrook going to be a consistent, disciplined defender? Is he, in Year 12, going to learn how to be effective off the ball? If he does those things and cleans up his shot selection, then I’m with you. But I’ve been making if statements about Westbrook forever.
Optimistic fan: Maybe there would have been less whining about his shot selection if Oklahoma City hadn’t given him such an enormous playmaking load while failing to acquire shooters to prevent opponents from packing the paint. Russ never complained about the cramped floor in OKC, but I’ll bet if you let him design an offensive system, he’d want a roll man like Capela and shooters everywhere. Beyond all that, the Rockets can use someone who will push the pace in transition and get easy buckets. They can use someone aside from Harden who puts pressure on the paint. They were second-last in defensive rebounding percentage last season, so I’m pretty sure they can use help on the boards, too. Russ fits just fine.
Skeptical fan: I will acknowledge that he can help them in transition and on the glass as long as you acknowledge that Harden likes to grab boards and go the other way. This is one of many ways in which they will have to adapt to each other, and all I’m saying is that I want to see it before I call them the favorites. And I have to push back on the spacing thing: Houston takes way more 3s than anybody, but it’s middle-of-the-pack in terms of accuracy. If I’m an opposing coach, I’ll live with Austin Rivers, Danuel House and Gerald Green shooting 3s if that means I’m containing Westbrook’s drives, especially in the playoffs. And Westbrook himself is coming off one of the worst shooting seasons in NBA history.
Optimistic fan: You have this all wrong — the role players’ percentages will rise with Westbrook driving-and-kicking for wide-open 3s, and Westbrook’s percentages will rise because last year was an aberration and he’s going to get clean spot-up looks from Harden.
Skeptical fan: We can both agree that there will be a natural push-and-pull between the Rockets’ system as we’ve known it and Westbrook’s maximalist style. I don’t know what will give, only that there is a reason people around the league were “puzzled” by the trade, according to Bleacher Report’s Howard Beck, speculating that it was made to pacify Harden and/or owner Tilman Fertitta. A belief in Houston’s plan requires a belief that the NBA’s most uncompromising star is about to change.
Eye on:
The Rockets’ latest reclamation projects are Anthony Bennett and Ben McLemore, and I’m more interested in the former No. 1 pick. Bennett lit up the G League last season from 3-point range, shooting 44.9 percent on 8.1 attempts per 36 minutes (the same frequency as Klay Thompson), and over the past few years he has mostly cut out the inefficient off-the-dribble stuff that held him back as he bounced from Cleveland to Minnesota to Toronto to Brooklyn before falling out of the NBA.
Bennett, 26, hasn’t played in the league since January 2017, but Houston surely envisions him contributing by making standstill 3s and finishing around the rim. I think that can work, and everyone loves a redemption story. If he’s going to earn a spot in the rotation, though, the Rockets will need to make up for his severe defensive limitations.
