Everyone is talking about the Chiefs, Dolphins and Bills in the AFC.
There’s also wonderment about the Bengals and whether Joe Burrow will eventually get right.
Not many are talking about the Jaguars. Maybe it’s time to change that.
After beating the Saints, 31–24, on Thursday Night Football at the Caesar’s Superdome, Jacksonville is now 5–2 and threatening to pull away in the mediocre AFC South. The Titans already have four losses entering their bye week, while the Texans and Colts are both 3–3. It’s not over, but it’s also increasingly unlikely the Jaguars are seriously challenged.
Going under the assumption Jacksonville will take its second consecutive division title, the question becomes one of ceiling.
We’ve seen the Jaguars make the playoffs. We’ve seen them win a playoff game. But can the Jaguars make a real run at representing the AFC in Super Bowl LVIII?
After beating the Saints, Jacksonville ranks ninth in points (24.7) and 17th in points against per game (20.8). The Jaguars also rank tied for 18th in yards per play (5.0) and 20th in the same metric defensively (5.3).
In situational football, coach Doug Pederson’s team sits 27th on third down (34.0%) and 16th in the red zone (55.5%).
While the overall metrics paint a picture of an average team, the record and personnel speak of a team finding its footing after a 1–2 start. After shockingly allowing 37 points in a home loss to Houston, Jacksonville has only permitted 71 across its four-game winning streak.
Context matters, too. During this streak, the Jaguars became the first team to play two consecutive games in London, then played again without a bye, then won in a short week. Albert Breer wrote Monday about their gauntlet of a travel schedule.
Additionally, with defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell in his second year, the Jaguars are terrific at forcing turnovers. Last season, Jacksonville was tied for fourth-best having 27 takeaways. Thus far in 2023, the Jaguars are leading the NFL with 17.
Offensively, the Jaguars are loaded with skill-position threats, including receivers Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones, running back Travis Etienne and tight end Evan Engram. While other teams have bigger stars, few teams have more legitimate options on every play.
While it’s still early in Jacksonville’s development—and early in the season—the Jaguars’ last 17 games point to a team potentially ready to become a power.
In that span (including playoffs), Jacksonville is 12–5, with three of those defeats coming to the Chiefs. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 4,180 yards and 27 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Those aren’t MVP numbers, but in his third season (and second under Pederson), it’s clear he’s on a trajectory toward being a perennial All-Pro candidate.
Of course, Pederson is the other half of the Jags’ power couple. The 55-year-old was charged with cleaning up the mess left by disgraced former coach Urban Meyer, and by any measure has done a fantastic job.
Pederson was an unqualified success in Philadelphia, winning Super Bowl LII. He also won two NFC East titles and reached the playoffs three times across five years before being ousted.
Now in Jacksonville, the Pederson-Lawrence dynamic has a chance to be special. Going into the season, I ranked the quarterback-coach combinations and saw fit to place Jacksonville fifth. Both Pederson and Lawrence checked in among the top 10 of their respective positions, also true of only the Ravens and Chiefs.
As for a good barometer of where they stand in the AFC, the Jaguars have already played two of the top three contenders by betting markets. They lost at home in a sloppy Week 2 affair against Kansas City, but limited Patrick Mahomes & Co. to 17 points while forcing three turnovers.
Three weeks later, Jacksonville took on the Bills in England and won, limiting Buffalo’s high-powered attack to seven points until the final five minutes of a 25–20 triumph.
Overall, the question of how high the Jaguars can ascend in 2023 is open-ended.
Jacksonville is a talented, well-rounded team with a burgeoning quarterback and a championship-caliber coach. It’s also very likely to host at least one playoff game before having to potentially pack up and go on the road.
The Jaguars are both largely unproven and full of potential. How much they improve between now and January will determine just how dangerous they are.
