The champion hailing from New Zealand has been nearly perfect since joining the promotion as a middleweight. His lone slip up came in a one-sided defeat against Jan Blachowicz in a bid to become a two-division champion at light heavyweight. Outside of that blip, Adesanya has beaten every single rising challenger in the 185-pound division, including two of them twice (Robert Whittaker and Marvin Vettori).
Plus, the women’s strawweight crown is up for grabs when champion Carla Esparza takes on former titleholder Weili Zhang. Esparza, now in her second reign as champion, will look for her first defense of the crown after upsetting Rose Namajunas in May. Esparza, 35, is on a six-fight win streak. Zhang, meanwhile, bounced back from losing the title to Namajunas on the last Madison Square Garden card by stopping Joanna Jedrzejczyk in June.
Meanwhile, the fight many fans are most excited for is a pair of action stars in the lightweight division. Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler are set to slug it out as the aging veterans look to make one final big statement for a potential title shot in the loaded 155-pound division. Poirier has won three of his last four since 2020 with a pair of knockouts. Chandler, meanwhile, is 2-2 since debuting with the promotion in 2021 with both wins coming by TKO.
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Every big UFC card draws plenty of attention at the sportsbooks, but a card as big as UFC 281 may have even more people than usual looking to make a wager or two. With that in mind, we have you covered with our picks for the best bet on each main card fight with odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
Claudio Puelles via submission (+240) vs. Dan Hooker
The general advice on this fight is to pass entirely. Hooker is a mess, going 1-4 in his five most recent fights with three of those losses coming by stoppage. He’s a -155 favorite (as he should be) but Puelles has good grappling and has won three fights via kneebar in the UFC. If you are determined to throw a little something at the fight, throw a small dart at Puelles via submission, which Caesars Sportsbook is boosting from +240 to +270.
Chris Gutierrez (-220) vs. Frankie Edgar
Like Hooker, Edgar has fallen off a cliff over the past several years. Edgar says this is his retirement bout and it would be wonderful to see him end his tremendous career with a victory. Still, Edgar should be 0-5 in his five most recent fights if he hadn’t gotten an unearned decision over Pedro Munhoz. Gutierrez isn’t a great fighter, but he is younger and has momentum. Edgar will have to close distance by going through some dangerous areas while Gutierrez will be whipping in kicks. Edgar’s chin isn’t what it used to be and that makes closing that distance an even higher risk. Gutierrez via KO/TKO/DQ at +200 is tempting, but the recommendation is to play it safe and take the straight moneyline pick.
Dustin Poirier (-230) vs. Michael Chandler
If your sportsbook is offering Poirier by KO/TKO/DQ, that is the play. It’s sitting around +125 at most books currently, though Caesars is not offering the bet as of the time of publication. With that in mind, simply taking Poirier here makes the most sense. There are some who suggest Poirier’s best days are behind him, but Chandler’s chin is an issue, even if he survived three rounds with Justin Gaethje. Poirier should be able to find plenty of space to land clean shots with his better technique while Chandler tries to bomb away. It’s a dangerous fight for both men, but one where Poirier has the edge.
Carla Esparza vs. Weili Zhang over 2.5 rounds (-200)
Zhang is a heavy favorite coming into the fight and that makes sense. Zhang is also a dangerous finisher but Esparza’s wrestling game has the ability to disrupt Zhang’s tempo and force the challenger to navigate some complicated moments. Zhang may find the finish but, as with the two times strikes have stopped Esparza in her career, it is likely to come after 2:30 of Round 2.
Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira under 3.5 rounds (+150)
The odds favor the fight to go the distance, while also saying Adesanya by decision is the most likely outcome. Despite safely outworking opponents to go to easy decisions has been Adesanya’s style of late, he has shown a willingness to go for the kill in fights where he feels like he needs to make a statement, like his brutal stoppage of Paulo Costa after his heavily-criticized outing against Yoel Romero. Pereira has otherworldly power in his strikes and if Adesanya opens up, the fight becomes dangerous for both men. It’s tempting to take the under 4.5 round line at +110 and buy five extra minutes for the fight to end, but taking the extra risk pays out more. Pereira by KO/TKO/DQ at +250 is another interesting line but our best bet for the fight is under 3.5 rounds at +150.
Who wins Adesanya vs. Pereira? And how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight at UFC 281, all from the incomparable expert who’s up more than $13,000 on MMA in the past three years, and find out.
Source CBSSports.com Headlines
