Jones has been out of action since February 2020. He vacated the light heavyweight championship after defeating Dominick Reyes and began verbally sparring with UFC management and bulking up for his long-awaited run in the UFC’s heaviest division. He now faces a dangerous striker in Gane in an effort to prove his status as MMA’s greatest of all time.
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Gane, meanwhile, represents the new wave of MMA as he quickly made his way up the heavyweight ladder to challenge Ngannou for the title in January 2022. He lost by decision, but bounced back with a knockout of Tai Tuivasa late last year. Gane has a diverse skillset with near equal styles of victory in knockout, submission and decision.
The other title fight set for Saturday night sees the return of women’s flyweight queen Valentina Shevchenko. The native of Kyrgyzstan has yet to be truly challenged since returning to 125 pounds as she has win nine straight bouts with eight of those being for the divisional title. She welcomes her latest challenge in Alexa Grasso, who has won four straight to earn the title opportunity.
Elsewhere, top prospect Bo Nickal makes his much-anticipated debut to open the PPV when he takes on Jamie Pickett at middleweight. Nickal, 27, won multiple Division I championships in wrestling before beginning his transition to MMA in 2019. He’s won all three of his amateur bouts, including a pair of submissions on Contender Series to earn his UFC contract. Pickett, meanwhile, enters on a two-fight losing streak and just 2-4 in his last six appearances.
As always, we are looking ahead to the event to determine our choices for the best bets on the pay-per-view main card. 2023 is off to a solid start with our picks going 7-3 across the UFC’s first two pay-per-view events.
Let’s take a look at our picks for the best bets on the UFC 285 main card with odds from Caesars Sportsbook.
Bo Nickal vs. Jamie Pickett
Bo Nickal to win in Round 1 (-200)
Nickal is as good a prospect as the UFC has seen in some time. It can be easy to get a little ahead of oneself by looking at Nickal’s quick and dominant wins in the first three fights of his career and think that is how he will handle any opponent. Obviously, more resistance will come now that he’s officially in the UFC. That said, the fight with Pickett is one that was clearly made to give Nickal the chance to do what he does best. Pickett has been finished five times in his career, three of those finishes coming by submission. What’s more, he has been stopped in the first round three times. This is the kind of fight where Nickal can try to show off his striking skills before deciding to engage his wrestling and quickly putting an end to Pickett’s night.
Mateusz Gamrot vs. Jalin Turner
Jalin Turner (+180) vs. Mateusz Gamrot
Gamrot is a big step up for Turner in terms of level of competition. That said, Turner is a 6-foot-3 lightweight who has finally started to put it all together. After a 1-2 start to his UFC career, Turner has gone on a five-fight winning streak, with all five wins coming by stoppage inside of two rounds. Gamrot is tough and has never been finished, but Turner simply presents issues very few lightweights on the planet can. With the way Turner has looked, as dialed in as he seems to be and with a six-inch reach advantage, there are plenty of reasons to make a play on the underdog to score the biggest win of his career.
Geoff Neal vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov
Fight to go over 1.5 rounds (-145)
Rakhmonov has been an absolute beast throughout his career. Sixteen wins, 16 fights and 16 finishes, a perfect record in every way as a professional mixed martial artist. Neal is just a very tough out. Rakhmonov should be able to win this fight, but Neal is tough enough that it isn’t going to be some easy ride for Rakhmonov from the opening bell. Neal has been stopped twice in his career, both before he joined the UFC and both coming in the third round. While Rakhmonov is a force, Neal is good enough to make him work for the win and stretch the fight past the halfway mark of the second round.
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso
Fight to go over 2.5 rounds (-145)
Shevchenko vs. Grasso is a tricky fight from a betting perspective. Grasso is unlikely to win but she has enough striking to be a threat, though not enough of a threat for a small play at +550 and Shevchenko is -800, removing the moneyline from the equation entirely. The most likely outcome according to the odds is Shevchenko by KO or TKO (+180), but she could use her wrestling to set up a submission, which is the one way Grasso has been stopped in her career. One number that stands out looking at the records of both women is that Shevchenko has only had one UFC fight finish before the midway point of the second round. The women’s flyweight champ is a patient fighter and Grasso should be able to make it through the first half of the fight because of it.
Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane
Jon Jones (-170) vs. Ciryl Gane
There are plenty of reasons for concern when it comes to picking Jones to win this fight. The three years out of action, moving up to a new weight class, Gane’s technical striking game, and so on. It’s just hard to look at what Jones brings to the table and how Gane got outwrestled by Francis Ngannou and think that Jones can’t maul his way to a victory. Jones’ wrestling is dynamic and creative when he chooses to utilize it and Gane is not going to be able to make up for the deficiencies in that area in significant enough ways from the Ngannou fight. Even saying Gane was surprised and caught off-guard by Ngannou’s wrestling doesn’t hold up because he showed no awareness or technique to stop Ngannou after the takedowns began. Jones figures out ways to win and he has a diverse attack that will never allow Gane to be comfortable. When Gane is worried about takedowns, he’s going to eat strikes. When he reacts to the strikes, he’s going to be taken down. Ride the Jones moneyline in this one.
Who wins Jones vs. Gane at UFC 285? And how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight at UFC 285, all from the MMA expert who profited more than $6,200 in 2022, and find out.
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