Lewis (27-12) pursues a 15th UFC KO on Saturday to build on his legend as the company’s most prolific KO artist. “The Black Beast” has exchanged blows with four UFC heavyweight champions (including interim) but seems to be declining competitively. Lewis hasn’t notched consecutive wins since 2021 and is 2-5 in his last seven fights. Most recently, Lewis was overwhelmed by Jailton Almeida’s grappling for five rounds. Lewis, 39, insists he feels better than ever despite the rough stretch of performances.
“My coaches and other people say once you get to 40 everything starts to slow down but this is the best I’ve felt,” Lewis told CBS Sports. “These last two fights are the best I’ve felt leading up to a fight in the training camp. I just feel great.”
Nascimento (11-1) has the mindset of the younger fighter on a winning streak. Nascimento headlines his first UFC card following three consecutive decision wins. The “Contender Series” alum is primarily a submission finisher but anticipates he’ll have the advantage in every avenue of the fight. It’s a lot of confidence for a fighter who has never gone more than three rounds facing his most accomplished opponent yet.
“I have many ways to beat him,” Nascimento told reporters at Wednesday’s media day. “Putting him on the ground is just one more way. I can strike, I can knock him out. I can finish him, or I can fight all five rounds.
“He has a good name and good hype on him, but after this Saturday, everyone is going to know my name because I will beat him.”
Check out the full interview with Derrick Lewis below.
Below is the rest of the fight card for Saturday with the latest odds before we get to a prediction and pick on the main event.
UFC Fight Night card, odds
| Favorite | Underdog | Weight class |
|---|---|---|
| Derrick Lewis -155 | Rodrigo Nascimento +130 | Heavyweight |
| Joaquin Buckley -135 | Nursulton Ruziboev +115 | Welterweight |
| Carlos Ulberg -270 | Alonzo Menifield +220 | Light heavyweight |
| Mateusz Rebecki -420 | Diego Ferreira -320 | Lightweight |
| Sean Woodson -205 | Alex Caceres +175 | Featherweight |
| Robelis Despaigne -235 | Waldo Cortes-Acosta +195 | Heavyweight |
UFC Fight Night viewing information
Date: May 11 | Start time: 7 p.m. ET (main card)
Location: Enterprise Center — St. Louis
TV channel: ESPN+
Prediction
Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento: It’s always a risk picking Lewis at this stage. The man obviously has record-setting KO power but his durability has diminished. The two-time title challenger has been stopped in four of his last seven appearances. Nascimento would be wise to take the fight into the later rounds to reduce what KO threat remains. The problem is I’m unimpressed with Nascimento. He’s coming off three consecutive decision wins, including split decisions against former light heavyweight fighters Ilir Latifi and Tanner Boser. They weren’t inspiring performances. Nascimento started his UFC run well enough — ignoring a quick KO loss to Chris Daukus — but his inability to win emphatically hurt his stock. Lewis can still thump. Despite his technical limitations, he has tons of experience fighting better skill sets than Nascimento. I see KO number 15 en route. Lewis via KO2
Who wins UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento, and how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on UFC Fight Night, all from the MMA expert who profited more than $1,500 on his UFC main-card picks in 2023, and find out.
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