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UFC on ESPN 5 odds, predictions: MMA expert picks Covington vs. Lawler, Miller vs. Guida

A bout with major implications in the loaded welterweight division highlights the UFC on ESPN 5 card on Saturday as Colby Covington and Robbie Lawler meet in the main event. The 12-bout UFC Newark card takes place at the Prudential Center. The preliminary card is set for noon ET, followed by the main card at 3 p.m. ET. The second-ranked Covington (14-1) is in line for a title shot against champion Kamaru Usman should he defeat Lawler. Meanwhile, the No. 11-ranked Lawler (28-13) hopes to climb back into the top 10 with a victory. The former welterweight champ has lost three of his past four bouts and is coming off a controversial loss against Ben Askren in March. Covington is a -225 favorite (risk $225 to win $100), while Lawler is a +185 underdog (risk $100 to win $185) in the latest Covington vs. Lawler odds. In the co-main event, Jim Miller (-175) takes on Clay Guida, who is going off as the +155 underdog in the current Miller vs. Guida odds. Before you make any UFC on ESPN 5 picks and predictions, you need to hear what SportsLine MMA expert Kyle Marley has to say.

Marley won the first-ever “ToutMaster” UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and is in contention to win this year’s contest. He also appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and DFS shows. Over the past year, $100 bettors who have followed Marley’s picks are up more than $21,000.

At last week’s UFC 240 card in Edmonton, Marley nailed Max Holloway’s one-sided title defense against veteran Frankie Edgar. He told SportsLine members that Holloway’s advantages in speed and striking would be the difference in a unanimous-decision victory. That’s exactly what happened, as the champion won all five rounds on two of the three judges’ scorecards.

Two weeks ago at UFC on ESPN 4, Marley predicted that Greg Hardy (-115) would knock out Juan Adams (-105) in a battle of heavyweight prospects that Vegas viewed as virtually even. Hardy finished an overmatched Adams in 45 seconds. Anyone who followed Marley’s advice booked an easy winner and those who have followed him throughout 2019 are way up.

Now, with UFC on ESPN 5 fast approaching, Marley has carefully studied every matchup on the 12-fight bill, identified the best value in the UFC odds and released his MMA picks for every single fight. He’s sharing those selections only over at SportsLine. 

Marley knows the UFC Newark main event is likely to be a turning point in the careers of both fighters. Covington returns to the octagon following a 14-month layoff. He defeated Rafael dos Anjos by unanimous decision in June 2018 for the interim welterweight belt, but was later stripped of it for turning down a bout against then-champion Tyron Woodley.

The outspoken Covington, 31, has been campaigning for a title shot against Usman, but the champ is sidelined indefinitely while he recovers from hernia surgery. UFC president Dana White reportedly has guaranteed Covington a chance at the title if he defeats Lawler on Saturday.

Lawler, 37, is noted for taking part in some of the most action-packed bouts in UFC history, particularly his two-fight rivalry with former UFC contender Rory MacDonald, who has since joined Bellator. He stopped MacDonald in their memorable July 2015 rematch that left both fighters hospitalized. You can only see Marley’s Lawler vs. Covington picks and UFC predictions at SportsLine.

At UFC on ESPN 5, we can tell you Marley is backing Matt Schnell (-110) to defeat Jordan Espinosa (-110) in a flyweight bout on the undercard that’s a coin flip according to oddsmakers.

Schnell (13-4) seeks his fourth consecutive UFC victory and is coming off a submission win against Louis Smolka in March. Espinosa (14-5) looks to build on a victory in his UFC debut against Jimmy Neely.

“Espinosa could be the better offensive wrestler, but Schnell looks to be more dangerous with submissions. I like the improvements we have seen from Schnell, so I have to favor him slightly,” Marley told SportsLine.

Marley also has strong picks for Covington vs. Lawler, Guida vs. Miller and every other bout on the stacked UFC on ESPN 5 card. You can see every one of his UFC predictions at SportsLine.

Who wins Covington vs. Lawler? And how exactly does each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on all 12 fights at UFC on ESPN 5, all from the incomparable expert who’s up more than $21,000 on MMA in the past year, and find out. 

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EltasZone Sportswriters, Sports Analysts, Opinion columnists, editorials and op-eds. Analysis from The Zone Team
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