For the first time in 19 years, the top teams in each of Major League Soccer‘s conferences have reached the MLS Cup final. Both teams are aiming for their first league title, and the respective paths the organizations took couldn’t have been more different.
Philadelphia Union‘s arrival to the final has been a long, steady climb. The Union qualified for the playoffs just twice in their first eight years. But starting in 2018, the club hit upon a formula of heavy reliance on its academy — Jack McGlynn is the latest to pass through and make an impact — combined with astute mining of the transfer market, picking up the likes of left back Kai Wagner and holding midfielder Jose Martinez, to become one of the most consistent performers in the league. The last three seasons have seen the Union finish no lower than third in the Eastern Conference, with the Supporters Shield being claimed in 2020.
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This season saw Philadelphia claim another Eastern Conference regular-season title, but with a twist. The Union’s defensive backbone remained in place, setting an MLS record with just 26 goals conceded. But added to it was an attack that scored a league-best 72 goals, with Daniel Gazdag bagging 22 goals to go along 10 assists.
By comparison, LAFC‘s march to the final has been more caffeine-infused. The Black-and-Gold were competitive from the moment they started play in 2018, winning the Supporters Shield a year later. A year after that, LAFC nearly claimed the CONCACAF Champions League in 2020, squandering a second-half lead against Tigres. There was the bump in the road that saw the team miss the postseason in 2021, but LAFC retooled with some astute pickups of their own, like holding midfielder Ilie Sanchez and right back Ryan Hollingshead.
There is a tendency to think this matchup boils down to whether LAFC can break down Philly’s defense, and that will certainly be a factor. Philadelphia had the third-lowest possession percentage in the league at 43.6%, while LAFC had the 10th best at 51.1%, so this is a match where the Black-and-Gold figure to have more of the ball. LAFC’s attacking trident of Cristian Arango, Denis Bouanga and Carlos Vela has shown it is adept at wearing opponents down, especially in the postseason.
But Philadelphia is plenty comfortable playing without the ball, and the fact that it still had the third-highest xG mark at 63.72 points shows how the Union are adept at creating — and exploiting — transition moments. That will be a huge challenge for LAFC, though their defense put up some impressive numbers as well. LAFC allowed the fewest shots on goal per game in the league at 3.4.
Perhaps the more important factor will be if LAFC can find a way past Philadelphia goalkeeper Andre Blake. Blake won his third MLS Goalkeeper of the Year award last month, and ranked second in goals prevented (a measure of goals allowed vs. expected goals allowed) with a mark of 11.4. In terms of the eye test, Blake was brilliant against both FC Cincinnati and NYCFC.
Then there is home-field advantage. It’s worth noting that the two teams finished level on points, but since LAFC had two more wins, they claimed the Shield — and home field for Saturday’s final — instead of Philly, despite the Union’s vastly superior goal differential.
Since MLS went away from neutral venues starting in 2012, the home side has prevailed in seven of the 10 ensuing MLS Cup finals, though two of the defeats were via penalties. Banc of California Stadium figures to be an absolute cauldron, even with the 1 p.m. Pacific time kickoff.
Playing at home on such an occasion can create its own special kind of pressure, but LAFC is likely to embrace that tension, cheered on by the partisan crowd. That makes them a narrow favorite to prevail.
MLS Cup predictions
Ahead of the MLS Cup, ESPN’s Jeff Carlisle, Kyle Bonagura, Dan Hajducky, and Austin Lindberg predict which of the two final teams will lift the trophy.
LAFC has a smidgen more quality in attack and, as impressive as Philly’s defense is, that should carry the day. — Carlisle
First, let’s acknowledge that this should be viewed as possibly the best MLS Cup final matchup of all time. It’s rare for the two top seeds — let alone teams tied for Supporters’ Shield on points — meet in the final and, the last time it happened in 2003, the quality of MLS wasn’t nearly what it is today. Anyone who feels strongly about who will win has misplaced confidence, and with that understood, LAFC is the pick. Banc of California Stadium provides an incredible home field advantage and the Black-and-Gold’s attacking talent is superior. — Bonagura
There seems to be something spooky-good happening for Philadelphia’s sports franchises of late — and I’m not betting against that good juju. The best offensive firepower in MLS in LAFC’s Carlos Vela and Cristian Arango will fall short against the second-best defensive squad in league history and 2022 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year (a league-record third award) Andre Blake. Two-time MLS Coach of the Year and Union gaffer Jim Curtin finally gets his hardware. — Hajducky
Regardless of the outcome, this stands to be one of the most memorable MLS Cups in years. These have been the two best teams in the league all season, so it’s going to be a real treat to watch them square off with everything on the line. LAFC may have the edge in talent and star power, but I like the depth and cohesion of Philadelphia, and their defending and goalkeeping that threaten to nullify the Black-and-Gold’s homefield advantage. — Lindberg
