FOX Sports’ 26-and-under power rankings are a new spin on the classic prospect rankings. Yes, prospects are important, but with all the game-changing young talent already in the bigs, farm systems alone can’t tell the whole story. So we’re diving deep into every single MLB club, ranking them all by the players in an organization entering their age-26 season or younger — from the bigs to the farm. Each weekday through March 24, we’ll count down from last to first.
No. 13 Pittsburgh Pirates
26-and-under total score: 18 (out of 30)
With every Rich Hill grunt on a backfield, the young players in Pittsburgh are learning a different way of operating.
The lessons gleaned are less about the words uttered in those bullpen sessions — many of which probably don’t bear repeating — and more about the intensity with which the oldest player in baseball still handles each rep, the care with which Hill manipulates each pitch and the wisdom the veteran pitcher can impart as he prepares for his 19th major-league season.
Hill is one of a handful of short-term veteran signings made by the Pirates this offseason; moves that won’t drastically change Pittsburgh’s 2023 outlook after a 62-win season but might be helpful for a burgeoning group of young players working their way toward the majors. The advice Hill can give to 22-year-old Quinn Priester or the tips catcher Austin Hedges can offer 22-year-old Endy Rodriguez and 23-year-old Henry Davis or the suggestions Andrew McCutchen can provide to all of Pittsburgh’s position-player prospects could help in seasons to come.
With a payroll still among the lowest in baseball, prospect development and “finishing school” for those players will be crucial in a year that is still about development in Pittsburgh. And if the Pirates want to end their seven-year playoff drought any time soon, some of the prospects complementing Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes in the years to come will need to develop into more than serviceable big leaguers.
In the meantime, those players can wish Hill a happy 43rd birthday this weekend.
Big-league hitting: 6 (out of 10)
Two of the more intriguing young players in the game reside on the left side of the Pirates’ infield.
Cruz’s potential is most evident in the way he shattered leaderboards. The striking 6-foot-7 infielder hit a ball 122.4 mph off the bat last year, the hardest of the Statcast era. It was not an anomaly. The year before, Cruz hit a ball 118.2 mph. He also showed off the fastest arm speed of any shortstop last season, averaging 93.9 mph on his throws, and his sprint speed ranked in baseball’s 98th percentile. With a full season of work, he could be a 30-30 guy, even if he doesn’t hit for a particularly high average. Which gets to some of the deficiencies.
He hit 17 homers in only 87 games, but he hit just 7% better than league average while finishing the year with .233/.294/.450 batting splits. He strikes out a lot — his strikeout percentage was third-worst in baseball among players with at least 300 plate appearances — and chases a lot, though he got better in that regard as last season went on. He also committed 17 errors in only 77 starts at shortstop, but the capabilities are endless.
Hayes similarly demonstrated immediate returns while leaving room for further growth. Offensively, the power display from his first taste of the majors in 2020 hasn’t been replicated. After mashing five homers in 24 games in his debut campaign, he has 13 homers and a .356 slugging percentage in 232 games over the past two seasons. A bit of that could be attributed to injuries, and some of the underlying exit velocity and hard-hit numbers indicate there could be more in the tank if he’s able to lift the ball more consistently, though power was never his calling card.
Still, despite finishing last season with an 87 OPS+, there was a reason he was worth 4.3 bWAR. Entering his age-26 season, he’s already arguably the best defensive third baseman in the game. He led all defenders there in outs above average and all major-leaguers in defensive runs saved last season.
With Cruz setting Statcast records with his power, arm and speed, and with Hayes playing elite defense at the hot corner, it might be easy to overlook the contributions of Jack Suwinski, who launched 19 homers in 326 at-bats last year as a rookie while offering above-average speed and defense. With Suwinski in the outfield, Rodolfo Castro potentially locking down second base and Ji-Hwan Bae offering utility depth, the Pirates have a horde of young position players who could make a meaningful leap in 2023.
Prospect position players: 4 (out of 5)
Most teams would be pleased to boast one of the game’s best catching prospects in their system. The Pirates have a few.
Rodriguez is the younger of the two, but he’s also the closest to making his mark in the majors after demonstrating consistency with the bat at every stop from high-A to Triple-A last season, slashing .323/.407/.590 with 25 homers on the year. It’s very possible the three-team trade that sent Joe Musgrove to San Diego will have netted the Pirates two cornerstone pieces in All-Star David Bednar and Rodriguez, who also adds to his value by being able to play the right side of the infield and the corner outfield.
In both Rodriguez and Davis, the Pirates have two versatile catchers who can potentially play multiple positions at the next level — Davis played a couple games in right field for Double-A Altoona last year — an important ability if both are going to remain in Pittsburgh. Davis was the Pirates’ top overall pick in 2021 and had a productive year going from low-A to high-A to Double-A, but wrist injuries limited him to 59 games. He was hit by a pitch 20 times among the three levels and seven more times in 17 games in the Arizona Fall League. He has always demonstrated great plate discipline — he had more walks than strikeouts at Louisville — and a healthy season should help him tap more into his power potential.
That goes for a number of recent top Pirates draft picks.
Nick Gonzalez, a first-round selection in 2020, dealt with plantar fasciitis last season and played in 74 games in a year that ended at Double-A. With Hayes at third and Cruz at shortstop for the foreseeable future, Gonzales will likely have to make his mark at second base, at least until top prospect Termarr Johnson, the fourth overall pick in last year’s draft, works his way through the system.
Travis Swaggerty, their top pick in 2018, was robbed of his 2020 season because of the pandemic and then played in only 12 games in 2021 due to shoulder surgery. He eventually made his major-league debut last season and could compete with Canaan Smith-Njigba for time in the Pirates’ outfield this year, though the speed threat will have to demonstrate more offensively to stick as a regular in the bigs.
Both Swaggerty and middle infielder Liover Peguero are names to watch. Peguero, a product of the Starling Marte trade, struggled more in the jump to Double-A as a 21-year-old last season, but at his age there’s still potential if he can improve his plate discipline and limit errors up the middle.
Big-league pitching: 5 (out of 10)
The Pirates won’t need to count on a number of young starting pitchers immediately. An exception is Roansy Contreras, the 23-year-old who is now off to assist a loaded Dominican Republic roster in the World Baseball Classic.
Contreras enjoyed a productive season last year in Pittsburgh, posting a 3.79 ERA at just 22 years old. His slider is a useful secondary pitch, though he may need to continue developing his curveball and changeups to get hitters off his fastball, which had a tendency to get barreled.
With the additions of Hill and Velasquez, the Pirates can now slow-play Luis Ortiz and Johan Oviedo if they’d prefer both to develop at Triple-A. The pair debuted last season as starters, but Oviedo also has experience in relief should the Pirates need bullpen help or want him to contribute immediately. Oviedo is reportedly working on adding a sinker to the mix, which could further develop by starting the season in the minors, while Ortiz could use the time to expand his repertoire beyond his changeup and highly effective high-90s fastball.
It is worth mentioning Mitch Keller, who will lead the staff after a terrific finish to last season, and standout closer Bednar, though they are entering their age-27 and age-28 seasons, respectively, just missing the cut-off for this list.
Prospect pitchers: 3 (out of 5)
Priester, the Pirates’ top pick in 2019 and their top pitching prospect, was limited to 19 starts last year due to an oblique injury, but he demonstrated a good grasp of his four-pitch mix upon his return and worked his way up from low-A to Triple-A. He had a 3.29 ERA across the four stops. The 22-year-old might not project to be more than a third or fourth starter, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him joining Oviedo or Ortiz in the Pirates’ rotation at some point in 2023.
Mike Burrows was also held back by an injury late last year, as shoulder issues and fatigue possibly contributed to some struggles after getting promoted to Triple-A. The 23-year-old’s three-pitch mix could allow him to help the Pirates soon out of the bullpen, though they might want to continue developing his secondary pitches as a starter in the minors. He averaged 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings in 12 starts at Double-A Altoona last year.
As it stands, there are a lot of potential rotational depth pieces in the system without an obvious ace, though it’s still early in the development process for players such as Anthony Solometo, Thomas Harrington and Bubba Chandler. Chandler, a 2021 third-round pick and two-way player who will reportedly stick to pitching in 2023, is an interesting name to watch, sporting a high-90s fastball and one of the highest ceilings on the farm.
Rowan Kavner covers the Dodgers and NL West for FOX Sports. He previously was the Dodgers’ editor of digital and print publications. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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