FOX Sports’ 26-and-under power rankings are a new spin on the classic prospect rankings. Yes, prospects are important, but with all the game-changing young talent already in the bigs, farm systems alone can’t tell the whole story. So we’re diving deep into every single MLB club, ranking them all by the players in an organization entering their age-26 season or younger — from the bigs to the farm. Each weekday through March 24, we’ll count down from last to first.
No. 14 Cincinnati Reds
26-and-under total score: 18 (out of 30)
The Reds were one of several teams (Cubs, Marlins, Athletics) whose appearance in the 2020 expanded postseason was a misleading representation of the direction the organization was actually heading. Despite winning 83 games in 2021 — the most victories since Cincinnati’s most recent full-season playoff appearance in 2013 — the Reds decided to tear it all down. Over the past year, they’ve traded away nearly every veteran of value this side of Joseph Daniel Votto in exchange for a horde of high-upside prospects. The Reds must now succeed at developing all their acquired talent into valuable big leaguers if they want to have any chance of challenging St. Louis anytime soon — let alone Milwaukee and the ascendant Cubs.
While all the trades have understandably grabbed the headlines, the Reds have quietly assembled a nice core of homegrown players already succeeding at the MLB level. It is this group that earned them an overall score just inside the top half of the league and features several players primed for more substantial breakouts in 2023.
Big-league position players: 5 (out of 10)
To call Jonathan India’s 2022 campaign a sophomore slump might be generous, as the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year posted a dismal .705 OPS and troublingly poor defensive metrics at second base. A hamstring injury clearly hampered him for much of last year, so there’s reason to believe he can return to form in 2023. If not, there’s no shortage of infielders flying through their minor-league system eager to take his job in short order.
Injuries also torpedoed what may have been a huge coming-out party for catcher Tyler Stephenson, who was hitting .319/.372/.482 in July when his 2022 season was cut short due to a broken right clavicle that required surgery. Catchers who can legitimately rake are immensely valuable players, and Stephenson has shown the rare ability to produce at an above-average clip relative to all hitters, not just his fellow backstops. The challenge now will be keeping Stephenson on the field for as many games as possible, even if that means giving him a healthy number of reps at first base and DH.
Another name to watch here is 24-year-old outfielder Will Benson, acquired from the Guardians in a trade last month. Benson is the epitome of the “first guy off the bus” phenomenon, as his hulking presence in the outfield and in the batter’s box has been his calling card ever since being selected in the first round of the 2016 draft out of high school. It’s been a slow climb through the minors ever since, but he made stunning strides in 2022, cutting his strikeout rate to a reasonable 22.7% in Triple-A after whiffing nearly 30% of the time in every season prior.
Those adjustments didn’t translate in his first go at MLB pitching in 2022, but it was only 61 plate appearances and Cleveland couldn’t afford to give him ample playing time to figure it out in the thick of its postseason race. He may start the year back in Triple-A, but don’t be surprised if he mashes his way back to the big leagues and gets real time with the Reds at some point in 2023.
Big-league pitchers: 6 (out of 10)
Lost in all the losses last season was the fact that Cincinnati boasted several of the best rookie pitchers in the entire league — three of the top 7 by bWAR, in fact: closer Alexis Díaz, triple-digit heat merchant Hunter Greene and lanky lefty Nick Lodolo.
When your older brother Edwin is the best closer in the world on a 100-win team, it’s not a huge surprise that 10 saves for the 100-loss Reds went largely unrecognized. But Alexis was downright nasty in 2022, striking out 32.5% of the batters he faced and allowing a lower BAA (.129) than every MLB reliever not named Ryan Helsley. Díaz’s 1.84 ERA wasn’t too shabby either.
Greene has been famous for so long that his rookie year hardly felt like an introduction to him at all. The heater is as advertised, registering faster than any other starting pitcher not named Jacob deGrom. The problem is that said heater can still get absolutely smashed by the best hitters in the world, especially when his command is inconsistent and his slider is often the only alternative. This resulted in something of a gopher ball problem for Greene in 2022, as he allowed 1.72 HR/9, the fifth-highest mark among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched. Still, the talent here is overwhelming, and any progress Greene makes with regard to command or finding a third pitch will go a long way toward reaching his ace potential.
Though not nearly as hyped even as a fellow former top-10 pick, Lodolo just went about his business in his first crack at MLB hitters and found much more consistent success than Greene. His 3.66 ERA was 22% better than league average and the whiffs (131 in 103.1 IP) were plentiful, as well, thanks to a balanced three-pitch mix led by his trademark curveball that is absolute hell for left-handed hitters. It’s not quite Chris Sale, but there’s a really special combination of unique angle and stuff here that will undoubtedly create an unpleasant at-bat for hitters for years to come.
That impressive trio doesn’t even include Graham Ashcraft, whose numbers as a rookie hardly reflect the high-octane arsenal he possesses. If Greene’s fastball velo impresses you, consider this: Only Emmanuel Clase (99.5) and Camilo Doval (99.4) threw a cutter with a higher average velocity than Ashcraft (97.3) in 2022. His cutter and high-90s sinker may never rack up the strikeout totals of his fellow rotation mates, but they could be excellent ingredients for a groundball-heavy innings eater with the right tweaks to his command and offspeed pitches.
Prospect position players: 4 (out of 5)
Headlined by one of the top prospects in all of MLB in Elly De La Cruz, these are the players who will likely define just how good the Reds will be in the coming years — and how quickly they can get back to contention.
De La Cruz remains by far the most important player in this group — if not the entire organization — moving forward. Despite not being particularly touted as an amateur — he received just a $65,000 bonus when he signed with Cincinnati in 2018 — De La Cruz has rapidly developed into a spectacular switch-hitting behemoth with plus-plus speed to boot. Oh, and did I mention he plays shortstop? EDLC is a singular talent whose path to superstardom may only be derailed by his inclination to swing at just about everything. Even then, he might be good enough to whiff a ton and still be an All-Star. This is someone you pay money to go see play baseball in person. He’s the kind of player the Reds need as badly as just about any organization.
De La Cruz’s star burns bright enough to hold up this farm system on its own, but recent trades and drafts have produced a comical amount of depth behind him, particularly in the infield. Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand are two bat-first infielders who came over from Minnesota in the Tyler Mahle trade. Steer has the inside track for the Opening Day third base job, but CES isn’t far behind him and offers even more raw power that should play beautifully at Great American Ballpark.
Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo led the Luis Castillo return from Seattle, and each of them have established residency on top-100 prospect lists. Arroyo may not have the transcendent tools of his new organization-mate Elly, but he too is a switch-hitting shortstop who just had a monster year in the minors. Marte likely isn’t long for shortstop, but he still looks like your prototypical power-hitting third baseman.
As if all those guys weren’t enough, the Reds have also spent each of their past two first-round picks on infielders: shortstop Matt McLain in 2021 and third baseman Cam Collier in 2022.
All of this is to say: Good luck predicting what the Reds infield will look like in 2025.
Prospect pitchers: 3 (out of 5)
If we assume Greene, Lodolo and Ashcraft will occupy three of the Reds’ rotation spots for the foresseable future, the last two spots could be up for grabs for this group of prospects sooner rather than later. Brandon Williamson, Connor Phillips and Levi Stoudt all arrived via trade from Seattle and each has already appeared in the upper minors. Stoudt may be the closest to the show, having pitched decently well in Triple-A last season, while Phillips possesses the highest upside yet the highest relief risk. Hard-throwing Chase Petty and Steven Hajjar were also added to the system via trade (are you sensing a theme?), each from Minnesota in separate deals.
The 19-year-old Petty is more of the Phillips variety, with huge stuff to go along with shaky command, whereas the 22-year-old lefty Hajjar (a second-round pick in 2021 out of Michigan) has more polish but less upside. Another 2021 second-round pick, Andrew Abbott, is a quick-moving arm out of the collegiate ranks that could reach Cincinnati in a hurry.
None of these guys, however, are remotely as fascinating as one Joe Boyle, who may have produced the single most eye-popping statline of any 2022 minor-league pitcher: 100.2 IP, 46 H, 84 BB, 153 K, 2.86 ERA.
The 6-foot-7 23-year-old has been one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in the world for several years now, but his scattershot command limited him to just 32 collegiate outings in three years at Notre Dame, exclusively from the bullpen.
The Reds took him in the fifth round of the 2020 draft and decided to let him start, and they’ve made enough tweaks since to make the dream of Joe Boyle, starting pitcher at least mildly plausible. But even if he does end up back in the bullpen, this gargantuan right-hander has some of the most unhittable stuff on the planet. We should all hope he can throw just enough strikes to become a viable starter, if not a dynamite relief weapon, to behold.
Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He has covered baseball for his entire adult life, most notably for MLB.com, DAZN and The Ringer. He’s a Mariners fan living in the Eastern Time Zone, which means he loves a good 10 p.m. first pitch. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.
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