Six teams are on bye this week, but never fear! Even if your favorite team isn’t playing this weekend, there are still plenty of ways to get in on the action.
I’ve found five player props that look like early values on SI Sportsbook.
Let’s have some fun!
Josh Jacobs over 20.5 receiving yards (-118)
Here’s what we know: We know Jimmy G is not starting on Sunday. We also know that Jacobs is averaging 36 receiving yards per game and that no team has allowed more receiving yards (366 for an average of 61 per game) to opposing running backs than the Bears. Jacobs had a season-high 81 receiving yards when Aiden O’Connell got the start in Week 4, and that’s enough to have me smashing the over.
Brian Robinson Jr. over 61.5 rushing yards (-120)
Robinson leads the Commanders backfield with 62% of the carries for Washington. He’s had three down weeks in a row, but this matchup with the Giants is good for a few reasons. First, the Giants have allowed an average of 132 yards per game to opposing running backs, and this prop is less than half of that number. Second, the Commanders are less likely to be in a negative game script as they have been in previous weeks. Washington is favored by 2.5 in this one, and they should be able to keep more of the game on the ground.
Rashee Rice over 36.4 receiving yards (-118)
This number remains low as Rice is still only playing 50% of the snaps for the Chiefs; however, despite the low snap count, he still has the most targets, catches, yards and touchdowns of all Chiefs receivers. Yes, Mecole Hardman is back in town, but I am still willing to bet on Rice going over this mark vs. a Chargers defense that has allowed the most receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts this year. Rice is averaging 41 receiving yards per game this season, but has eclipsed this mark in just two of six contests. Still, I’m willing to bet on Mahomes targeting Rice enough to cash this prop.
Tyler Lockett over 55.5 receiving yards (-110)
We just saw Cooper Kupp shred the Cardinals defense. Lockett, who like Kupp runs routes both out of the slot and out wide, should also be able to find success this week. Lockett owns a a 36% air yards share for Seattle — tied with DK Metcalf — but he has a slightly higher percent of routes run per dropback. Lockett is averaging 50 receiving yards per game this year, and I’m willing to bet he makes it to 56 yards on Sunday.
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown over 56.5 receiving yards (-120)
Brown is averaging 56 receiving yards per game this season, and he’s the clear WR1 in Arizona with a 43.4% air yards share. I know the Seahawks defense looked better last week vs. the Bengals, but with Joe Burrow still banged up, I am not sure it is an accurate measuring stick. Instead, I’m looking at the fact that the Seahawks have allowed the second-most receiving yards to opposing wideouts this season on a per game basis (204 per game). It seems likely Brown will have a nice game on Sunday, especially in what is expected to be a negative game script. The Seahawks are favored by more than a touchdown, and I’m willing to bet Hollywood will be a big part of the Cardinals game plan with the running back room in some disarray and the fact that they are likely playing from behind.
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